By Francisco Lara Jr.
(Francisco Lara Jr. is a research associate at the Crisis States Research Center, Development Studies Institute, London School of Economics.)
The eruption of violence and the declaration of martial law in Maguindanao exposes the dynamics of collaboration and conflict between allies who advance their interests in conditions of war. Without this backdrop the recent declaration of martial law will be seen as baseless, unnecessary, and rife with hidden agendas. Why should government declare martial law in an area which had been under de-facto military rule over the past two weeks?
To follow this reasoning is to insist that martial law in Maguindanao constitutes an overkill given the arsenal of coercive instruments that the central state commands. Yet the imposition actually makes sense when seen through the prism of political economyâor the shifting power relations between Malacanang and Maguindanao, and between Ampatuan and the other warlord clans of Mindanao. In short, martial law possesses political traction even if the legal basis does not exist.
Prior to the massacre the Ampatuan clan was the âstationary banditâ in Maguindanao and the overlord of the ARMM. Witness the line of governors from the ARMM that made obeisance to Andal Sr. and pledged their unwavering support to his regime. It demonstrates the elite bargain purchased and coerced by the Ampatuan clan among the Moro elite, which transformed the regional authority into a powerful force unmatched by previous administrations.
For the first time in the ARMMâs history, powerful governors marched in step with the overlord, condoning years of violence and corruption in exchange for a share in the licit and illicit revenues to be gained from a region that is part of the Philippine state only in name and location.
Meanwhile, the ruling coalition bound itself to the dominant clan through an arrangement that brought huge revenues and state-of-the-art weaponry to the latter in exchange for the votes and violence that secured the authority of the ruling coalition. Collaboration facilitated electoral fraud and a subsequent cover-up. Collaboration enabled the state to harness the clanâs armed threat to ensure compliance among competitors and to protect the instigators. Collaboration provided the muscle that would stem any intervention or meddling by rebel forces and other armed groups.
But elite bargains are by nature extremely fragile, and fraught with complications. They are also confusing, especially when the state engages in the same illicit activities which it should be suppressing. So when we see guns and ammunition stamped with DND and AFP logos in the possession of ruthless paramilitaries, we are shocked by the collusion between rulers and warlords who partake from the same bounty gained from the underground trade in illegal weapons.
The key is to see the agents of both sides in the political divide, i.e., rulers and warlords, as rival groups vying for the same scarce economic and political resources, alternately colluding and colliding with each other, faced with the same incentive to gain more at the expense of the other. The same may be said about the inter-clan warfare that erupted in Central Mindanao, where demographic pressures were partly to blame according to conflict analyst Ed Quitoriano. In his view, the violence was a direct result of the diminishing resources available in terms of territory and government positions. These could no longer accommodate the children and descendants of the patriarchs who wanted to carve their own space within the region.
The arrangement approximates what the conflict scholar David Keen calls a âsell gameâ (rigged game), where rivals collude based on the shared aim to âmake moneyâ and to âstay alive,â or collide when one party undermines the other. The alliance can endure over long periods of time if each side recognizes the possibilities and limits of the game. However, the game eventually ends when one, or both players over-reach. This was the case in 2001, when President Joseph Estradaâs "over-reach" led to Chavit Singsonâs withdrawal from a bargain that came dangerously close to his own annihilation. The Maguindanao massacre reflects the same "over-reach" that now dooms the partnership with Ampatuan.
In such a scenario, conflict becomes the fruit of collaboration. The side effect of a ruptured alliance is that a rival who knows the real score may turn from concealing towards revealing this deadly arrangement. Worse, the rival may engage in armed confrontation that can threaten the security of the entire ruling coalition.
This is when a massacre becomes useful, and militarization becomes inevitable.
The unintended consequence of the Maguindanao massacre was to provide the rationale and recourse to militarization. Militarization in turn puts the squeeze on a rival who is punished and coerced to accept the new set of rules, i.e., a new elite bargain. In this context martial law is simply the next logical step in a politico-military rescue effort aimed at engineering a smooth transition from one clan to another, away from the prying eyes of media, the international community, and the public.
The ultimate beneficiaries are the national political elites including some Moro elites hungry for the same privilege and power which Ampatuan possessed. This new alliance appears dead-set on redressing the power imbalance built and nurtured through years of protection, corruption, and the use of local elites for black ops.
Martial law cripples the Ampatuan clanâs chances of maintaining the same politico-military dominance, and may be hard put maintaining a significant fraction of its influence and firepower. This does not mean that the Ampatuan clan should be written off, only that the conditions for a rebound will not emerge until some sort of palatable justice is served, or a new arrangement is forged with the state, probably under the next administration. Nevertheless, the ruling coalition is now in a position to redistribute power to other contenders and to restore the political momentum in their hands.
DILG Secretary Ronaldo Punoâs comments on the likely transition are illustrative. He argues that vice governors will replace governors, vice mayors will replace mayors, so on and so forth. Following the constitutional provision that prohibits military governance over civilian authority, the Ampatuan clan will be coerced into ceding power to the next link in the civilian chain of command. In the interim, these new political authorities may share the same surname and are likely to be clones of the Ampatuans. Eventually, a new warlord clan will emerge to trump the rest.
The situation teaches us to analyze the conflict in Muslim Mindanao by looking at violence and conflict as a system where the economic and political interests of warlords and rulers alternately collude and collide. That knowledge will in turn highlight the fatal flaw that produced the bloodshed on November 23, 2009. In a region where political animosities were often resolved by gerrymandering the political geography to accommodate diverse and powerful claimants or by threatening overwhelming force, the government relied instead on a strategy which it is slowly getting used to. Apprised of the looming violence between the Ampatuan and Mangudadatu clan, the President and her operators tried to fix the problem by convincing the latter to drop their electoral challenge. In shortâto back-off.
As we all know, that strategy failed with tragic consequences.
Collusion colision in muslim mindanao,
Mr. Lara do you have any evidence about the Ampatuans We should remember that 5the Ampatuans are innocent until proven guilty.
The witnesses against Mayor Andal Jr, are questionable and may have been coerced.
TO Atty. Bong,
Attorney Bong baka matulungan mo ako kasi may caso ako.?nakita ko na magaling kang lawyer. nakita ko iyong patay- binubuhay mo at yung buhay pina-patay mo. siguro graduated ka sa magaling na law school sa phillipines.at placer ka sa board. iyan kasi ang hinahanap ko sa kaso ko...!? Alam mo kasi may TRANG-KASO ako. eehhh... baka ipanalo mo.....? ha..ha..ha..! you got to be joking what you said ATTY BONG. don't worry all the truth will come out...at hinde natutulog ang dios. 92 million pilipinos isa lang angkan lumoko sa buong maguindanao... pinayamam ang kanilang sarile at pinag-hirap-ginutom at pinatay ang mga tao na balakid sa lalamunan nila...at kaya nilang itago ang pag patay ng pa isa-isa; pero ang pumatay ng 30 reporter 27 ordernayong tao at pati cristiano ay dinamay nila na hinde kasama sa alitan nila ay sinale...ilan pang mga tao pinatay ng ampatuan siguro marame aside from 57. na kaya pate mga kaluluwa noong iba ay nag sibagong na din to give them judgement the ampatuan .Atty. Bong sana ipanalo mo pa ang iba mong kaso. peace be with you.
To Atty. Bong:
"RES IPSA LOQUITUR". All the circumstances and facts points to your client - the time, place, motive and means. You'll never win the case, your client neither have the legal nor moral ground for this case, they only have the money and the powers that be behind them so you take this opportunity to drag the case till kingdom come then you might win it. Good luck paniero.
Itong mga attorney na tulad ni Bong yan ang mga 22ong salot. Pra clang ginawang computer kung ano lang nkaprogram ung lang ang gagawin, walang emotion. Nmemorize nila ang law at topnotchers sila, pro pra sa akin nkalimutan nila essence kung bakit kelangan maging lawyer. Ang alam nila dapat maging lawyer pra maging sikat at magkapera. Ang alam lang nila ipagtatanggol nila client nila kahit cnu, kriminal man o hindi. At siguradong my sagot sila sa sinasabi ko rito.
What has Deputy National Security Adviser Chavit Singson advised the President with regards to the peace and order situation in Mindanao?
Or is Chavit Singson spending all his time following Manny Pacquiao?
Let's not forget that the real victims here are the journalists and the war is between Political Warlords against truth and the prize is continued slavery of the common people. Clannishness is the cancer of Phil. society from Aparri to Jolo. Without transparency, the schemes and plots of the clan warlords are hidden in the dark, all the world see's are the puppet shows meant to elicit the international community's stamp of approval, the people's consent is not even essential to them. Clannishness is the tool that the warlords use to gain power much like in gangsters.
atty lara the ampatuan are plain criminals and hoodlums. All witnesses (their own comrades) are all pointing their fingers to them as the main trigger men in the massacre. What more evidence do we need to prove. These people should be tried immediately together with their cohorts - Mrs Arroyo and company who sold them the weapons to kill those people. Shame on these people for providing them arms coming from taxpayers money to commit this crime. The verdict should now be handed down asap-- guilty as charged and death by musketry--all the ampatuans and mrs arroyo and her cohorts.
Atty. Bong - I'm not a lawyer but I'm not stupid. They might be innocent until proven guilty but they have the means and motives to commit such atrocity that shocked the whole world. Who else would benefit from such an act? They are also a bunch of egotists that they name towns and districts after themselves as if they own the whole province and would perpetuate themselves by doing so. Now, their name will be synonymous with the gruesome massacre whether they did it or not.
atty. bong' do you have any idea who murdered those 57 people...all witness almost have desame answer...one plus one equals two...yes unless proven guilty..
i know as a lawyer..you know how's guilty...consciensya mo na lng yan'...seguro tide ang ginamit mong panglaba.
Atty Bong is obviously lawyering for his Ampatuan sponsors. Makes you wonder how he'd react if his wife, sisters and a slew of journalist friends were backhoed somewhere in the outskirts of Cotabato City? Would he be weeping for the Ampatuans then?
The presumption of innocence is reserved for human beings. The Ampatuans are animals...nay, they are demons incarnate - the Ampatuan family name should be legally changed to Ampasaitan!
Sirs, I think Mr. Lara based his opinion on the news and updates that are being published, historical facts and common sense (correct me if i'm wrong Mr. Lara).
What the article states look very much like what is happening. As an ordinary individual, one can only guess what the real motive of this tragedy is. We can all speculate. It will only depend on which side you see.
Atty Bong, you have all the right to defend the Ampatuans. If you really believe that they are innocent, then go ahead and defend them. But like what R. Santos said, it looks like all evidences lead to the Ampatuans.
This may be another case of unsolved mysteries. I'm almost certain that this issue will again die or drowned by another issue that will arise in the coming months (watch out during elections).
Again..."charge to experience".
No matter how compelling the evidence against the Ampatuan are,atty bong has a job to do in defending those cowards,if he is indeed one of the counsels of those cowards,ang nakakatakot lang pong isipin ay ang bulag na batas ng pilipinas,lalo na sa kasong ito,dahil sa influensya ng mga duwag na Ampatuan clan,mahirap kalabanin itong mga duwag na ito dahil sa notoriety of this people on disposing a life as if its just a worthless thing,i hope i am wrong with my premonition, that there will be a trial against the ampatuans but justice will turn a blind eye on the victims and punished the bit players only of this case,unless we all stand in vigilance on this case,and follow it and be with it until the end,the judge who will hear this case will be overwhelmed and submit to the ampatuan wishes na ma absuelto sila,
its all up to us to be the eye and should stand with the judge and give the judge the will to hear this case,its up to the people of the philippines to stand up against this cowards and criminal,and its up to the lawyers of this cowards to find a way to discredit what evidence the military has gathered against this cowards,maybe this are one of those times that we the people has to stand up and be counted in vigilance for this case to be heard fairly,we the people has a slam dunk case againts this bunch of devils advocates,and loosing is not an option
I hope that those Good and Peace loving Ampatuans will be excluded from the world wide people's cursed. And the demonic Ampashaitan (Ampatuans) as Basilan Chamber says and their Defenders od Wrong, the so called brilliant and clever demons will find their abode in the severest hill fire and experience the same fate with their victims.
Whatever happens, the Ampatuans have nothing to worry about. Just look at Marcos Jr who's already eyeing the presidency. He said he doesn't feel the least ashamed of his parents' dictatorship. That shows the character of the man (or worm) that he is. That brings me to Villar, maybe he did not earn his wealth, maybe he is one of the secret guardians of the Marcos hidden wealth like the rest of the Marcos cronies.
Abdul Gapor Garapal
the law of karma can never be wrong.
Surely one will reap, what one sow.
this is true in all religion and remember
religion divides.
do not just imagine, believe there is no
heaven,there is only hell and heaven
when we all die.
Atty. Bong,
pambihira ka, kapag halata na huwag ka na lang kumibo.
The Ampatuans already happened, let's prevent it happening again. Let's prevent warlords using Mindanao for election fraud. The fraud is no small matter - it was able to elect a fraudulent gov't.
AFP earned the distinctions of protector of the people in EDSA I, as peace keepers after the massacre. It's time it earns the distinction of guardian of the people's will in the next election.
This is a very important election, since this is the path to the return of Marcos dictatorship in the 2016 election. If that happens, we need another secessionist movement larger than Mindanao - the whole Philippines fighting for freedom from Ilocos.
The article of Mr. Lara is one sided. He think that the Martial Law in Maguindanao is totally wrong, which I partially disagree. I appreciate the vigilance of our Kababayans regarding the possible abuse of the martial law or possible testing scenario for the imposition of Martial Law in the whole country, which are really something will worry us. But being a Mindanaoan, I strongly believe that the short lived Martial Law in Maguindanao is justified. First, since the individual pursued hold offices in the area, which means they have a mandate they can easily use to self serve their purpose. Second, they have guns and goons. Lastly, they have the money and influence. With these premise, not allowing Martial Law, is just saying 57 people who died, are simply forgotten. Not allowing Martial Law, would create a chaos in the government system in Maguindanao, the judiciary would tremble, the successor will have a smile ear to ear, and the supporter will agitate the whole situation. For me Martial Law, that time is to stop anybody who rocks the boat.
In closing, my hope is to just share a vantage point regarding the Martial Law issue, looking at it with an open mind.
Only Arthur was meant to wield Excalibur. Even in the Lord of the Rings, the ring was never meant to be worn. The martial law was used to destroy a warlord the gov't created, and which put the present gov't in power. The martial law was the gov'ts way of smoothing out its own mistake - which never should have happened if it acted with more integrity. We have lived with the same lie since the time of Marcos, Mindanao was kept in backwaters for too long to enable corrupt politician to get elected. The Mindanao lawlessness was created by political design.
"AFP earned the distinctions of protector of the people in EDSA I, as peace keepers after the massacre. Itâs time it earns the distinction of guardian of the peopleâs will in the next election." - this is a win-win suggestion which actually means: 'DO NOT SERVE AS MERCENARIES FOR POLITICIANS DURING THE ELECTION AND DESTROY PRIVATE ARMIES/MAINTAIN PEACE AND ORDER TO PREVENT ELECTION FRAUD."
Outstanding blog Really revealing and inciteful. i love what your doing here great job Excellent!!! islamic names
I agree with the above post. Personally I cannot see why you would not want to make an effort in this regard anyway. Only the other day, at work we had exactly the same conversation and came to a similar closing
atty. bong gawin niyo na lang ang trabajo niyo at sana tumahimik na lang kayo.
It does not take an Einstein to know what is going on in Maguindanao. It was clear as the sky barbaric, murderous, heinous, horrific without any reason, massacre (Guinness Book Of Record should be contacted)of innocent people in this century. It was political greed to the nth degree, abuse of power and gross misuse of all sorts of military hardware short of war. It is disgusting and humiliating to be identified as Filipinos with these hellish clan. If I were President, I will order military rule for Mindanao and all elected officials to be under close supervision of the military. But then with the culture of the Pinoys, pare dito, pare diyan, regalo dito, regalo diyan, it will just be playing musical chairs. In order for the Philippines to be a respected political member of the political global community, the Filipino should face the mirror and ask himself, what do I value, sacrifice to have a decent government or take the 5 pesos to buy dried fish or lugaw or tke that millions peso bribe to live the rat race. Both are extremes that need change NOW!
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