Three hypotheses

Spoke before a group of business professionals in Makati City today, on the political situation. I saw my role as provoking a spirited Q&A; to that end I proposed three hypotheses about the May 14 elections.

First: The elections remain one way to resolve President Arroyo’s crisis of legitimacy. (See, for instance, what I wrote on August 1, 2005.) One Voice’s forceful and articulate position, that the mid-terms ought to be considered a referendum on the President, is not only borne of a deep faith in democratic practice; it is also faithful to much of our election history.  

Second: The elections are the opposition’s to lose. The SWS survey conducted from February 24 to 27 clearly showed that the public mood is anti-incumbent: A plurality of 36 percent of registered voters said they preferred an opposition candidate for congressman; a plurality of 28 percent said they preferred an opposition candidate for governor; a plurality of 35 percent said they preferred an opposition candidate for mayor.

Third: The opposition will lose the elections, in all aggregates except the most high-profile one, the race for the Senate. This result is an indictment of the opposition — especially its lack of preparation, its state of disorganization. Except for some high-visibility exceptions, such as Sabas Mabulo’s candidacy against Dato Arroyo in Camarines Sur, many of the local races are uncontested by opposition candidates.

Some extenuating circumstances explain the opposition’s lack of preparation: Many oppositionists were forced to spend the last months of 2006 playing defense, against the people’s initiative, against the constituent assembly, against the specter of assassination at the local or community level. Still: It needed more leaders like, say, Noynoy Aquino, who said the other week that planning for the 2010 presidential election (he is, of course,  supporting party-mate Mar Roxas) must start now. Planning for the 2007 mid-terms should have started in mid-2005, when it became clear that the President had a counter-plan against impeachment.

I think the political opposition today, understood as broadly as possible, is in the same stage as the Democrats in the United States in 2004. The question for political junkies is: Does it have its Chuck Schumer, its Rahm Emanuel?

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