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As I wreck this crystal ball

07/10/07

Posted under May 2007 elections, Media matters, Philippine politics

It has been a month since my last post; my apologies for dropping off the radar screen, but I have been unusually busy. With luck, this busy-ness, or at least parts of it, should bear fruit starting next week. My thanks to colleague Manolo for keeping the blog going, and to our growing band of readers who continue to post very interesting comments indeed. (More about this, later this week.)

On to the present, which, as luck would have it, is all about the past: I was struck last month by a column of Billy Esposo’s in the Star, which offered an assessment of the columnist’s reliability as a political crystal-ball gazer.

I thought Esposo did the honorable thing: Unlike any other mainstream media political commentator I know, he asked his readers to judge his political prognostications. But a close look at his column, and at other columns he had written (easily accessible here), tells us that Esposo undermined his own experiment, by choosing to write about only those predictions that had, willy-nilly, come true.

In other words, Esposo inserted a new mono-bloc into journalism’s musical chairs game —- and then promptly wrecked it.

On June 14, Esposo wrote:

In my February 15, 2007 column, I wrote: “Given the imperfections of each member in both camps, you will find at least eight Opposition candidates who are virtually unbeatable. These are (with their corresponding ranking in the Pulse Asia survey): (1) Loren Legarda, (2) Senator Panfilo Lacson, (3) Senator Francis Pangilinan, (4) Taguig-Pateros Rep. Alan Peter Cayetano, (6) Senate President Manuel Villar Jr., (10) Aquilino Pimentel III, (13) House minority leader Francis Escudero and (14) Tarlac Rep. Benigno Aquino III.

In fact, Esposo did include that key paragraph in his February 15 column. He also wrote the following, which he reprinted in his June 14 column:

About Antonio Trillanes IV, I wrote: “Mutineer Antonio Trillanes is not an unknown unlike the Gloria Macapagal Arroyo (GMA) administration’s Petilla and Kiram. The Oakwood Mutiny has made Trillanes a national figure although it remains to be seen if he had roused enough pizzazz to get voted to the Senate the same way as Gringo Honasan.”

Save for Koko Pimentel, all those I mentioned as winnable have already won. Escudero and Aquino did climb to better rankings, to second and sixth, respectively. Trillanes was the phenomenal winner of the elections.

Did Esposo, as early as the start of the national campaign period, already identify the opposition winners? He included Pangilinan in the opposition line-up, yes, but aside from that minor detail, did he in fact predict, in the middle of February, the winning candidates of the opposition?

Not exactly. In the February column, he also wrote:

Another Opposition candidate, John Osmeña is perching on the 13th rung. Those trailing Osmeña will find it hard to overtake him from his present ranking. His position bolstered by the big Cebuano vote, Osmena could well be the 9th winning Opposition senator.

In fact, the big Cebuano vote did not materialize for Osmena. He did not even place in the Cebu province’s first 12.

Did Esposo correctly predict Trillanes’ phenomenal win?

Not exactly. The handful of words on Trillanes that he reprinted in his June column actually formed part of a longish passage:

Compared to the unheard of personalities in the administration lineup, the other Opposition candidates have the edge. For one, Nikki Coseteng cannot be considered an unknown. Coseteng has been elected Senator before. Mutineer Antonio Trillanes is not an unknown unlike the administration’s Petilla and Kiram. The Oakwood Mutiny has made Trillanes a national figure although it remains to be seen if he had roused enough pizzazz to get voted to the Senate the same way as Gringo Honasan.

Raul Roco’s widow, Sonia Malasarte Roco, carries with her the name of the “best president we never had” and the Bicol vote is as reliable as the Ilocano and Cebuano votes. She has qualities on her own. Compared to Petilla, Magsaysay and Kiram, Sonia has better chances. The Gloria baggage

Ultimately, the outcome of the senatorial race will be determined by the weight of the baggage that the administration candidates carry. Many of them having neither facial familiarity nor name recall, their biggest handicap is really being part of the team identified with Gloria Macapagal Arroyo.

In other words, any one of the trailing opposition candidates —- Coseteng, Trillanes, Roco —- could have landed in the winning circle too, because of GMA, their rivals’ “biggest handicap.”

Esposo ends his June 14 column with a thumping conclusion: “How does one maintain a reliable election crystal ball? Say what is truthfully in your heart and mind, what your best lights tell you.”

Well, Esposo’s best lights also told him that Manila was not Senator Fred Lim’s for the taking.

Many people are under the impression that the mayoralty fight in the City of Manila is a toss-up between Senator Fred Lim and Ali Atienza. However, incumbent vice mayor Danny Lacuna emerges as the man to beat.

In that same column, he predicted that Benjie Lim would beat Joe de Venecia in Pangasinan.

Meanwhile, in the 4th District of Pangasinan, Dagupan City Mayor Benjie Lim is poised to unseat House Speaker Joe de Venecia (JDV). Sources in the province and the 4th District say that Dagupan City — a Benjie Lim bailiwick — comprises the biggest voting block of the contested seat. As it is turning out, JDV is more of a national figure while Lim is the bigger local presence.

No question, Esposo was writing what was truthfully in his heart and mind. Perhaps that’s why he got the Lim and JDV elections wrong.

To be sure, it isn’t easy making predictions. Hats off to Esposo for forcing the issue, reminding all media consumers that we really ought to hold our political analysts to a higher standard. But having started the debate, he fell prey to the sort of expectation-management he has so often railed against. A pity.

It would be interesting, of course, to find out exactly how other analysts, such as our own Manolo or Dean Bocobo of Philippine Commentary, fared in the crystal-ball-gazing department.

I have already written about this before, but the PR expert Manolo talked to before the start of the campaign was spectacularly wrong about the chances of Edgardo Angara.

In March, Dean allowed some less-than-rigorous readings of the latest SWS survey to see virtual print. Some excerpts:

4. Alan Peter Cayetano is gaining quickly on these early leaders, compared to the January survey published by Pulse Asia, Inc. and seems destined to become a Senator that will give the First Gent and the administration a lot of headaches once he gets there. I’m going out on a limb to say that he could even top the Senate race as Loren continues to lose support, possibly from the fallout of Tony Leviste’s murder rap.

9. I am glad that Joker Arroyo will be battling Ed Angara, Koko Pimentel, Mike Defensor, and even Sonia Roco for the 12th and last spot. He may yet be shown the exit door, now that he doesn’t have Jojo Binay to help him win an election.

10. I’ve include #25 Chavit Singson, only to gloat over what his partner Joker Arroyo is facing too: defeat at the polls! They can all be appointed with Davide to the UN and sent packing out of the country.

Unlike Esposo’s reading of the political tea leaves, however, Dean’s prognostication did have a saving grace:

11. There is of course nothing fixed or final about these results. One dynamic that is very hard to gauge is how votes for candidates that will now be seen as having little chance of winning will be redistributed by the voters to the remaining contestants. Organization, as in the case of Angara can translate such votes into important margins needed for victory. And of course, there is still the deus ex machina kind of machinery…

By John Nery
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