ON June 15, 2007, I wrote a blog entry titled “New Asian alliance,” pointing in turn, to an article by Brahma Chellaney, a professor of Strategic Studies at New Delhi University, titled Playing the new Great Game in Asia and beyond. The article said a new exploratory alliance, had emerged in our region:
A nifty new enterprise to discuss security dangers in the Asia-Pacific and evolve a coordinated approach — the Quadrilateral Initiative — has kicked off with an unpublicized first meeting. U.S., Japanese, Indian and Australian officials, at the rank of assistant secretary of state, quietly met recently on the sidelines of the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) gathering in Manila.
The emerging four-power alliance was aimed at China. Writing in the Asia Sentinel, Gavin Pao took a look at where that exploratory alliance is, at present: Strategic Chess: Do four-power military exercises and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization foreshadow a new sphere of conflict? In it, the author writes that a massive naval exercise took place at the same time as the APEC Summit. Participants in the exercise were members of the Quadrilateral Initiative -referred to in the article as the Quad Alliance- which has its own security focus, the Malacca Strait. That focus, in turn, represents a threat to Chinese interests:
All four Quad countries are keen to ensure that the Malacca Strait between Malaysia and Indonesia, the world’s busiest waterway, is kept free of threats. Roughly 30 percent of the world’s cargo trade passes through the strait and the need to ensure safe passage is certainly paramount. The strategic importance of the strait as a conduit for oil imports is sacrosanct to a number of countries, including China, Japan and South Korea.
However, with the Quad exercises being conducted with a heavy arsenal that included aircraft and submarines, it is clear that potential threats posed unconventional forces, like terrorists or pirates, have hardly been accorded first priority. Moreover, effective patrolling of the strait can be enforced primarily through close coordination between Malaysian, Singaporean, American and Indonesian intelligence agencies, without any need for substantial Indian or Japanese involvement.
The irony regarding the argument for protecting the Malacca Strait is that controlling it through a forum in which China is not involved effectively hangs a psychological noose over China’s head. Roughly 60 percent of China’s foreign trade and 75 percent of its oil imports also pass through the Malacca Strait, and it explains why China has been so aggressive in creating new transport outlets for itself away from the coast.
The story goes on to discuss how the various members of the Quad Alliance are responding to China, with Australia cozying it up with Beijing and other countries being more ambivalent. And how Beijing sees its prospects:
China, meanwhile, remains confident in its backyard, with much of the region under its sway. While ASEAN countries still look to the US as the region’s ultimate guarantor of security, Beijing has played a skillful diplomatic game in Southeast Asia, according the region top priority during a time when the United States has tended to take ASEAN for granted, as symbolized by Condoleeza Rice skipping several key ASEAN summits. Philippine President Gloria Arroyo even referred to China as a “big brother” at an ASEAN summit this year.
In contrast, if you look at my July 26, 2007 entry on the debate on where American commitment to Philippine security really stood, Filipino officials, like their Asean counterparts, get mixed and usually not very encouraging messages from the USA. American think tanks, on the other hand, are quite aware of the ebb and flow of American prestige vis-a-vis China in the Philippines, and have tried to influence official policy. But they’ve failed.
A reason may be that the Bush administration has nailed America’s future to Iraq: the American historian (and blogger) David Kaiser says the US faces a Turning Point so significant it represents the fourth great crisis of American national life:
The fourth great crisis of our national life is upon us. The first (1774-1794) created our republic; the second (1857-68, or 1857-72 in the South) preserved it; and the third (1929-45) made us a leading world power. Ever since Strauss and Howe published The Fourth Turning at the end of 1996, their readers have been speculating about when the crisis would come, and what it would be about. President Bush’s speech last Thursday, in my opinion, answered those questions. We now know the issue that the next ten years will decide: the nature of the United States’ role in the world in general and the Middle East in particular. We shall either emerge, for good or ill, as the world’s remaining imperial power living in a long-term garrison state, or we shall step back and begin to allow the world to take care of itself again.
There seems little place in this American crisis, for South East Asia. Which brings us to the Philippines and the administration’s “China card.”
Back in October, 2005, I’d pointed out in my blog (see IV, 2) that one political card the administration was playing, was the “China card.” This was most obviously played on July 8, 2005 when both Secretary Romulo and Speaker de Venecia (de Venecia, particularly insistently) said China supported the President.
This was at a time when the United States seemed ambivalent, at best, about the administration and was even suspected of maneuvering to kick the President out. China maintained an official posture of enthusiastic support for the President, and began giving token aid to the AFP, which traditionally, has been totally dependent on American assistance and thus, susceptible to American pressure. That assistance remains small, but China continues to increase it, little by little, as well as aggressively pursuing commercial contacts and official assistance, as demonstrated by the ZTE deal.
The President hasn’t been shy about singing the praises of China, just as China sees potential in Philippine investments to help supply raw materials. And of course it may be as simple as this: it’s easier, more pleasant, even more dignified, to do business with the Chinese than say, Europeans and Americans with their rhetoric about “transparency” and “honesty,” which the targets of Western preachiness tend to view as sanctimonious pap.
Our country and government is neither China’s biggest market or even a very large factor in the Chinese scheme of things. But influence is gained one small and big government at a time; what makes us important, in a sense, is if the UK and Japan served as super carriers for the projection of American power in Europe and Asia, the Philippines served as an escort carrier (when the bases existed) or escort destroyer (today) for the projection of American influence. In turn, Philippine governments tried to extract concessions from the US with varying levels of success.
Geopolitics is also domestic politics. China wants to be a Superpower, America wants to remain the only one, the Philippines, like Japan and indeed, also the rest of Asean, likes cozying up to America to counteract China, but China proves more attentive and generous than America… Domestically, the President has used China as a foil to America, and America seems to have resigned itself to realizing it needs the President, for now…
But think of this. The ZTE deal triggered a protest from the US Ambassador. The same deal has also reminded Filipino businessmen that contrary to their belief, up to this point, that the virtue of the President was she played politics ruthlessly, but unlike Estrada (and of course, Marcos) she intended to keep her hands off business, and in particular, big business. But the ZTE deal has intruded into the turf of big local players (PLDT and Globe, for one, the telecoms giants who could have profited from a national broad band scheme), as well as American business interests. So their hackles have been raised.
The easiest thing to do would be for the President to scrap the deal. But the Chinese have invested; if testimony is to be believed, money has exchanged hands. It becomes, then, a question of face. Face is something that is priceless; and if face is lost, the consequences go beyond dollars and cents.
This, then, is the dilemma of the government. Just as it’s begun to enjoy its cozy relationship with China, domestic politics has taken on an international dimension.
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12 Feedbacks on "The China card"
Manuel L. Quezon III: The Daily Dose » Blog Archive » Shock and awe
[…] Inquirer Current, I take a stab at analyzing the geopolitical circumstances surrounding the ZTE deal, and why the […]
pete m.
mlq3,
I commented as below at Ricky’s blog prior to reading your post:
Has GMA gone too far playing the China card and for what?
Or does she just need cheap China loans as an addict needs money to buy drugs. GMA is addicted to power. She needs Chinese investments and loans to prop her up. A ‘good economy’ lays the predicate for PGMA beyond 2010,’to secure the gains of the economy’.
Or is there something on the table, or underneath, between GMA and the Americans?
A couple of days prior Bunye’s ‘hello garci’ 2-CD show, the US embassy had issued a disclaimer of involvement in a scandal which later turned out to be the recordings. A week prior, a US state dept. report was also leaked. Had the US tagged GMA a ’security risk ‘ validated by the geopolitical impact of her China policy.
Or has GMA found basis to be suspicious of the American agenda against her that, in that sense, she’s playing the China card — not for national interest but hers.
INQUIRER.net Blogs » MP4 watches, China card, Advent Children and Royal Chocolate Flavored Margarine
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Bert
This is now a matter for the government people involve in this anomaly of ‘damn if you do, damn if you don’t’. Of course face is going to be lost whichever way it goes. If they go through with this they will lose their faces far as the Pilipino people is concern, because the butter has been taken in advance, and we have been fried in our own fats. If they scrap the deal now they will lose their faces to the Chinese just the same, if not worse, because the butter has been taken, and the Chinese won’t take it sitting down, the butter taken away from them without chance of return of investment, and we know the Chinese are astute businessmen. So the Chinese will cry foul, and might spill some beans. The government people are so used to hearing the whining of the people, they are now immune to it, so it won’t matter to them this time if they lost their faces to the people again. Me, and Kabayan, and OFW in Afghanistan, and the majority in this blogsite are going to raise hell again, the minority will shout ‘Move On’, then defend the scammers again, as usual. So, better to lose face with the people than see some beans being spilled. NBN DEAL-Move On!
Anna de Brux
Excellent analysiis - geopolitics and international business pieced together clearly and convincingly.
Gloria is not one to bother about saving faces; what she is worried about today is how to keep her power intact; she has to keep the Chinese at bay but happy and that’s her problem.
On JdV (the Speaker) raising the China card in 2005 - he thought the China card was useful in light of America’s going about lamely over the Philippines but most importantly, I believe that he also wanted to help his son win business.
JdV is an opportunist, as bad an apportunist as Gloria.
Joshz
I take a stab at POLITICS! Bull!
Better take unpopular but shrewd decisions than take lame and just because the people lament.
ricky
China is and will be a superpower(economic/military)no one can dispute that and the Philippines has a lot to gain if we have a close economic and political relationship with China.The philippines is in a very strategic position and will stand to benefit(economic)with a prosperous china as a friend and neighbor.China is real and not simply a “card” of geopolitics.Look around metro manila and the provinces from chinese businesses/schools to chinese tourists,thats reality.Filipinos have already accepted them as friend,neighbor&masters.We filipinos have a BIG heart more than enough for two best friend(US&CHINA).”It is better to gain a friend than to lose one”
pete m.
As an off-shoot of the Senate’s ZTE investigation, I suggest the creation of the Philippine-China Economic and Security Review Commission.
To monitor, investigate, and submit to congress an annual report on the national security implications of the bilateral trade and economic relationship between the Phillippines and the People’s Republic of China, and to provide recommendations, where appropriate, to Congress for legislative and administrative action.
hiram1104
The US hates PGMA for abandoning them in Iraq and shows it by reducing the economic and military aid. Even the US Congress exerted pressure by inviting the Human Rights Group in its session and threatening to reduce the US aid to the AFP. PGMA turns her attention to China, seeking economic and military aid to counter the US moves. She even concluded a trillion dollar investment from China to help the country in its massive infrastructure programs, and lately China was extending military aid to AFP. China needs the Philippines as market for its products while the country needs China for loans and grants. The new economic superpower is China and is well on the way of becoming a military power at par with the US. PGMA is on the right tract and history will judge her on his economic performance and if she succeeded in taking our country on the way to first world status, her detractors will appear as villains in the eyes of the Filipino people.
Bert
To: hiram1104
PGMA in office more than 10 years already, unable to bring Philippines to level of first world status in that long period of time. She now has a little over two years left in office. You think she’s now Superwoman to accomplish in two years what she failed to do in ten years? Logic please.
Darren Smith
Dipolog Medical College Sues Former Student For Exposing the Truth.
Mr. Alberto T. Concha, Jr whose family owns Dipolog Medical College has filed a claim against Jennilyn Nesnia for P650T. This is the student who exposed Concha’s policy of preventing students from registering and taking their nursing board by delaying and holding their TOR and refusing to provide required documentation so that students could register with PRC. As what has happened with Ms Nesnia’s case.
It all started last April 2007 when Ms Nesnia requested her records to be able to take the nursing board in June 2007. The school was unwilling to let Ms Nesnia take the nursing board because she did not pass a DMC pre board exam. They gave this exam seemingly because of their continuous record of poor performance on the Nursing Board passing rate. Only those who passed the DMC test were allowed to take the PRC Nursing Board exam. In addition, the school required those who wanted to take the exam to pay approximately P70T for a review course and other incidentals. If the family did not have the money, a Concha business was able to give the student a loan. Unbelieveable!
The tactic worked. A majority of the students who paid the P70T payola passed the Board exam. The school’s passing rate improved ONLY for the limited number who had the money. Overall, DMC’s passing rate was still 28% even though they tried to fool the residents of Dipolog with banners that their passing rate was 66%.
Mr. Alberto T. Concha, Jr made a threat against Ms Nesnia and uttered it to her father: “AKONG GUB-ON AND KAUGMAON NI JENNILY” (I’M GOING TO DESTROY THE FUTURE OF JENNILYN). Mr. Concha is the Dipolog Medical College’s Academic Vice President. Atty Concha is now so immoral that he has filed a claim for damages against Ms Nesnia in the amount of P650T. Ms Nesnia is one of 8 children. Her mother is umployed and her father is a carpenter. Jennilyn Nesnia is the only hope of this family and of all filipinos trying to raise their status in life. I guess Mr Concha is so depraved he is willing to sue the family without a peso for their last centavo.
It wasn’t the first time Mr. Concha threatened Ms Nesnia. In April 2007, he put a hold on Ms Nesnia’s school records and said she would have to file a case to get the records released. After pleas to board members of CHED and PRC, Senators, the President of the Philippine Nurses Association, Concha allowed the release of Ms Nesnia’s TOR but blocked other critical documents required to register with PRC. As a result, Ms Nesnia was not successful in registering for the June 2007 Nursing Board exams. DMC continued to block those critical records until the Davao Office of the Ombudsman intervened. Mr. Concha then decided to use the legal system as a weapon to sue the former student who exposed the school’s corrupt and immoral practices. This is clearly conduct unbecoming a member of the Philippine Bar.
This case is a disgrace against Philippine Nursing education, the Philippine Bar & legal profession, and the PRC and CHED. Here’s the case of Dipolog Medical College blocking students from taking professional exams by holding their records, threatening them, then using the legal system against them if they speak out. If it can happen in Dipolog, it can happen everywhere. Filipinos deserve better.
This would have never happened if CHED had fulfilled their promise to close substandard nursing schools such as Dipolog Medical College who has not had a pass rate of more than 28% in this decade. Its time to take action against such schools who lure students with dreams of a better life and deliver a barely passing education. Eventually, this will stain the reputation of nursing professionals from Philippines.
Where were you President Arroyo when Ms Nesnia first came to your office for help? Senators, where were you when Ms Nesnia wrote to you asking for help? PRC and CHED, where were you when Ms Nesnia needed help.
Its another Nursing Scandal. Shame on you Mr Concha.
Darren Smith is a college professor in Florida, USA and can be reached at dasmith100@yahoo.com or 0920-589-5931 (text only)
Slowly but surely : Manuel L. Quezon III: The Daily Dose
[…] -and a loss of funding and the accompanying erosion of its prestige- it could, at least, keep its China Card in play, as an antidote, fiscally, and politically, to its having lost the American Card. Which is […]
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