Inquirer.net’s Thea Alberto has the scoop: A copy of the Australian Federal Police report she was able to get her hands on confirms what PNP Chief Avelino Razon has said since last week: It was a gas build-up that led to the explosion in Glorietta 2, not a terrorist’s bomb.
Australian forensic experts have concluded that the blast which killed 11 and injured over a hundred in a mall in Makati City last month was caused by a gas explosion and not by an improvised explosive device.
In its 13-page report, a copy of which was obtained by INQUIRER.net, the Australian Forensic Police (AFP) however did not say what had led to the blast although it noted that there were several “potential sources” which included the “sewer gas/fumes which can consist of sulphur dioxide, methane, ammonia; diesel fumes.” Australian experts also said that there were no traces of bomb parts.
It is a conclusion I have a hard time believing, in part because of the previous theories floated by Razon himself and by other responsible officials (summed up in this Inquirer editorial), and in part because my own sources tell me the story isn’t over yet.
The editorial (published the day after Razon and a galaxy of star-bearing police officers visited the Inquirer and the Star) listed the different theories and the assertions of fact already on record, and concluded:
We recognize, of course, that theories change as more facts emerge. We understand that, aside from that stray remark about RDX traces being found, not much else points to a bomb. But we also realize that in some high-profile terrorist acts, it took government investigators some time to prove that bombs were in fact used.
We acknowledge the investigators’ readiness to continue considering the bombing angle — they were, after all, the first to consider it. We recognize their testing of new theories as consistent with the emergence of new facts. We believe, however, that their main duty, at this time, is to ascertain all the necessary facts. Unless these are established, any theory offered to the public is a rush to judgment.
The Australian forensic report goes a long way to establishing the gas leak theory, but Makati City Mayor Jejomar Binay remains skeptical. Before a copy of the report was obtained, but after Razon had raised the gas build-up theory again, Binay called for greater transparency in the ongoing probe and a new, independent investigation altogether.
Earlier, the mayor had called for an independent and impartial probe, citing the PNP’s “inconsistent and at times illogical statements.”
(Of course, Binay’s point is not without self-interest; the gas theory would make City Hall and its opposition leadership liable for negligence.)
Even today’s Youngblood, a deeply moving tribute to one of the tragically slain, raises the possibility that the investigation was “polluted by politics.”
I have my doubts too.
In the first place, the record is clear: A few hours after the explosion, the PNP Chief himself aired the possibility that the blast was caused by a bomb.
Secondly, the visits by the PNP top brass to the various newsrooms were highly unusual. It could be that this is merely the way the new Chief does business, but as one can readily see from a comparison of the same-but-different front pages of the Inquirer and the Star the day after the visit, this kind of unusual attention stokes a journalist’s hard-earned skepticism.
Thirdly, the police generals were quick to adopt an aw-shucks attitude when questioned about the technical details of the (new) theory they were proposing. If this were a murder, I can answer your question directly, Razon told me, in so many words, during the meeting with Inquirer editors and reporters. The chief of the investigating task force, Chief Supt. Luizo Ticman, also admitted that the details were a little too arcane for him, but said he and the top brass were relying on the work of their expert investigators. We asked him for a listing, and he said: Sure, but I will have to ask them for permission first.
(A note: The quotes are without quotation marks because I am paraphrasing, as best I can, from memory.)
Later, maybe 20 minutes later, an aide handed Ticman a single sheet of yellow or legal paper, with what looked like 20 or so names written on it. This, he said, waving it in the Inquirer’s multi-purpose room on the second floor, is a list of all those experts working with us. I caught a look at some of the lines; they contained police titles: PO3, PO4, and the like. I remember thinking: Would a one-star general need the permission of the PNP’s own experts (he mentioned, other others, a “metallurgy forensic expert”) to disclose their participation in a high-profile investigation?
Fourthly, my own sources tell me about other findings, other “facts” unaccounted for in the new theory. Unfortunately, I am not in a position to corroborate what they say.
All this makes today’s Youngblood essay, by Patricia Palea Orjalo, that much harder to read. Patricia writes:
I was in denial for a long time. From the moment I got the first text message, to the anxious hours of searching for him at the Makati Medical Center and Ospital ng Makati, up until the night I looked at him inside the coffin, I could not accept the painful reality that my good friend had departed. But then again, who would have thought that a person so full of life and who gave so much would go ahead of us?
All of Onin’s friends and loved ones were distraught. A dark cloud hovered over the Vidamo residence on the first night of the wake. Mass was said with everyone present in tears. It started with discreet sniffs and burst out in loud wails of anger, grief and despair. The priest did not bother to stop the ceremony to comfort the family members. He let them be.
November 19th, 2007 at 1:13 pm
consider this angle too…is there a reason for the adm. to bomb congress? they are gma allies. why will you hurt your allies? logical thinking..
re senate investigations, do you know that taxpayers are shelling out 2M/day for their investigations alone? may honorarium pa yan. grabe talaga.
don’t you think we should initiate an online petition to abolish the senate? how many laws have they passed in recent years? what kind?
and the party-lists over-acting congresswomen, please lang, hindi kayo ganoon ka-sikat para maging target, ok?
tell the people first, where you spend your cdf, and what you have done for our countrymen. the govt was being blamed for beltran’s car accident, even.
party-list reps and senate….a real waste of taxpayer’s money.
November 15th, 2007 at 8:47 pm
Eh di pa pinasabog ang buong congress…para maubos na lahat ng congressman..wala naman nagawa mga yan..isama na senate..puro naman imbestigador nagtatrabaho dun..walang senador kasi wala na ibagn alam gawin kundi mag imbestiga hahahahaha
November 14th, 2007 at 4:52 pm
Hehehe, I’m waiting for the statement that the investigators will now say that the Congress blast will be insisted again as a caused by methane for the sake of “stability”.
With all those methane being expunged by most Congressmen for eating a lot of food courtesy of their gifts of “brown paper bags” it’s not hard to imagine
November 14th, 2007 at 3:50 pm
Want a bomb to strike you? Anytime? Anywhere?
Only in the pinas this thing will happen to you. You will never be safe even at your own home and even you hide in the Lower House of Congress (Philippines that is). For sure somehow a bomb may hit you.
HURRAH FOR THE MILLIONS OF FUNDS WE POUR FOR INTELLIGENT . . . I MEAN INTELIGENCE sorry for my mistake. A lesson for the Commission of Audit a bomb might hit you if you make the wrong audit. Thank you.
GLORIETTA 2 THEN ….. LOWER HOUSE OF CONGRESS NOW ….. WHAT’S NEXT ? (YOU THINK)
November 12th, 2007 at 1:52 pm
Very coorect. The flooded gas theory has too many flaws for to be true.
Not only technically:The heavier-than-air LPG would flow out like water, therefore not mixing with air to an explosive mixture. And it would create a big flame while no burns have been found.
Biogas is not created immediately and near impossible when there is permanent new inflow of waste and water. The needed microbes could not survive or multiply. Additional, it would go up and exhause at any opening, creating a bad smell. And because of its being less heavy than air, it would have filled the whole building, stink and if really exploding, not being concentrated a a small area.
But the most suspicious matter is are the staements of PNP and military. All the brass went there and they recognize smell of explosives (they know best their own C.4) and then found traced of RDX. It has been very convenient for to justify military blamings at Abu or NPA and threatening to bring more military to Manila.
When it startedto bring up suspicion of involvement of PNP or military for to divert public attention about the broadband deal etc., very immediately there was no RDX anymore, no more bomb and the foreign experts had to investigate an area which has been moved and turned around already, no wonder they could not find something like RDX anymore.
Lastly, gas creates what id called an explosion, like in any car engine. C-4 and its likes create what is called a detonation, much faster, much more powerful, much more devastating. This only can crack or destroy armed concrete and without much flame. But it could trigger a gas explosion and there have been reports that some people heard two explosions.
But what lastly will become the ‘true finding’ will always be that what the administration wants to be true findings.
November 9th, 2007 at 8:33 am
I was not a bomb expert, but when I was young I use to make experiments out of local paputok - superlolo, five star etc. (small time).
But when it comes to macro blasting whether on movies or on military testing, a bomb blast is what we can see on what had happen on Glorietta 2 simply because if the explosion is caused by methane as they use to say expect more flames and if there are flames bodies will be severely burned but for Glorietta its not and another is methane in anyway cannot fragment solid structures like harddened cement columns.
A C4 or dynamites is more possible because as I said the blast is clearly destoys cemented structures.
For the PNP, NBI, AFP be true to yourself, as they use to say maybe you can play out your way sometimes but not always.
November 5th, 2007 at 9:51 pm
yeah yeah yeah…assumptions assumption assumptions….
THe politicians are laughing at all of us…we talk about the incident wiht passion…we speculate about things using our best intellect….
but who knows the truth???? nobody knows who really knows the truth….everybody lies….the administration would love to rule out the bomb angle…because it would make them look bad…the opposition is point their fingers at the administration…because it would be good for them…
And the people…like us…WE ARE BEING FOOLED….AS ALWAYS!!!!
November 5th, 2007 at 2:33 pm
While the others are full of assumptions, KutKut is full of logic. Between assumptive premises and logical dissertation, ’tis not difficult to know which is credible. It is established fact that an advance team were right on the scene right after the blast, could KutKut be wrong in implying that cleaners arrived before the experts?
November 5th, 2007 at 8:28 am
Hmm, an interesting article here:
“Ayala Land refutes accidental gas blast theory”
Excerpt:
…These were some of their findings (paraphrased for brevity):
* Methane, one of two components of biogas, could not have been produced since it takes microorganisms eight to 10 days to multiply to sufficient quantities. The water in the basement sump pits was discharged to the city sewers “several times a day.”
* The accumulation of biogas, which is 20-percent less dense than air, was unlikely “because it would have vented via the large open stairwell leading to the delivery bay that is open to the street.”
* Biogas could not have been present since the personnel working in the basement did not smell hydrogen sulfide, which is similar to the odor of rotten eggs, and did not experience nausea, and eye or skin irritation on or prior to the day of the blast.
* It is unlikely that a gas explosion in the basement would have caused the severe damage observed in the loading bay area because at the time of the incident, the loading bay was open to the street.
* The diesel tank suffered only “minor secondary damage” with its roof deforming and forming a weld, which is “entirely consistent with it having been caused as the result of the primary explosion,” thus overpressure in the diesel tank “could not have caused the damage.”
* Upon testing by a major oil company, the “flash point” – or the temperature required for the combustion of vapor from a liquid – of the diesel fuel in the day tank was found to be normal at 76 degrees Celsius and within specification…
More info at:
http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/breakingnews/nation/view_article.php?article_id=98766
November 4th, 2007 at 2:49 pm
if indeed the police were able to clean up evidence before the fbi, aust. investigators came, ang galing naman nila, no traces have been found!
i do not know razon, but let’s give him some credit, remember he tipped the fbi of the world trade bomber youssef.
read tony abaya of mla. standard on the gas leak or lpg theory. many readers from abroad wondered why the basement of glorietta is cramped w/ gas cylinders, septic tanks, tubings and cords, etc. w/c shld be placed outside of the bldg. w/ ventilation…
of course, binay and ayala does not like the gas theory bec. of big time liabilities and reputation tarnished….bumaba na nga ang ayala land sa stock market eh.
November 3rd, 2007 at 10:38 am
Useful skepticism is one which provides an alternative hypothesis which is testable or falsifiable. Otherwise it might just be stubbornness and obscurantist.
November 2nd, 2007 at 10:24 pm
The investigators missed something. They missed the truth or just refuse to give out the truth. The simple truth is that diesel fuels, IFO or ADO dont just explode. These need a larger bang to explode. A handful of C-4 will do. In the first place, the witnesses said they smelled explosives. No mention of fuel oil fumes. If only those investigators went inside vessels, these reek of fuel fumes of thousand tons. Any seaman will tell you fumes fill up every nook and corners of ships with all those sparking motors, pumps, faulty switches in operations all the time and even smoking is allowed the butts smother thrown into the fuel leakages at the centinas, mind you. Yet no explosion ever occurred. Little fires erupt at hot jobs but can be snuffed out quickly before it spreads. Methane gas? The septic tanks on board are sealed in when in port sometimes into months or years but are used continually by crew. Movement of the ship acts like an eggbeater generating fumes. No need for a mechanism to activate the C-4, ask Senator Trillanes. Thats his baby. Or if there was, the cleaners were very thourough before those eggsperts went to their job. Up to now, no one has even reached the pump level.
November 2nd, 2007 at 6:02 pm
Between two skeptics, it could be said that one could be more skeptic than the other, the one not easily believing until all possibility of doubts has been exhausted the ‘more’, while the other, believing easily without the benefit of conclusive and final outcome that would erase all clouds of doubts the ‘lesser’. Of the two, assuming that skeptism is generally a healthy exercise, the more skeptic is the more healthful.
November 2nd, 2007 at 12:36 pm
yes, please share these uncorroborated ‘facts’ for the careful consideration of your anxious readers. and yes, please post the Australian report in the inquirer website. aka la ko ba “free flow of information” ang mantra ninyo?
November 1st, 2007 at 11:54 pm
Dear John,
Skepticism is generally healthy, especially when they are solidly grounded. I have examined the premises of yours and find them wanting. To summarize, you “have a hard time believing” the conclusion because:
1. A few hours after the explosion, the PNP Chief himself aired the possibility that the blast was caused by a bomb. Yet, the well-written editorial you adverted to had this correct assertion: We recognize their testing of new theories as consistent with the emergence of new facts. Rather than being a basis for skepticism, this point tends to diminish it.
2. The visits by the PNP top brass to the various newsrooms were highly unusual. It could be that this is merely the way the new Chief does business, but as one can readily see from a comparison of the same-but-different front pages of the Inquirer and the Star the day after the visit, this kind of unusual attention stokes a journalist’s hard-earned skepticism. Couldn’t this have (when was this visit?) been just a media management attempt on such a disconcerting incident? I wonder why the Inquirer did not have the more appropriate headline “PNP officers visit PDI, eat own crow in front of editors!” consistent with your head “Palace fixes 190 congressmen” on the bribes scandal.
3. The police generals were quick to adopt an aw-shucks attitude when questioned about the technical details of the (new) theory they were proposing. But since then, police have also released a lot of information tending toward the gas blast theory, including the two reports featured in a special section of PDI with many photos of the basement which showed no signs of a bomb explosion.
4. My own sources tell me about other findings, other “facts” unaccounted for in the new theory. Unfortunately, I am not in a position to corroborate what they say. Why don’t you share these ‘facts’ for the careful consideration of your anxious readers? The Inquirer should also post the Australian report in its website.
The officials should be castigated for their rush to judgment early on. On the other hand we can’t be faulted for our rush to skepticism considering the current political atmosphere. But might we be faulted for a lingering, adamant, and unreasonable skepticism oblivious of the established facts already made available? A professional skeptic like me was instantly skeptical of the members of the Psychic Entertainment Network featured in ANC yesterday, but that is because of my appreciation of mainstream science. Would you happen to know of any arcane scientific findings which cast doubt on the gas blast theory? In other words, tell us what in the future needs to be established for you to find the theory easier to believe.
Before I forget let me attempt to dispose of the initial finding of RDX on one sample from the ground floor. In my earlier and long blogs on the subject, I raised the possibility that this was simply a false positive, owing to the limitations of the test itself. Because of the absence of reference to this in the reports of the foreign investigators, I take it that they were not able to replicate the result, and did not emphasize the fact out of professional courtesy to their local counterparts. I have read almost all the PDI articles on the blast but could not find any reference to any of your reporters pursuing this false positive angle.
Finally, your skepticism reminds me of ex-defense secretary Donald Rumsfeld’s disengenuously original defensive remark: The absence of evidence is not evidence of absence regard to the failure of investigators to find the slightest trace of WMD in Iraq post invasion.
Sincerely yours,
viking logarta
November 1st, 2007 at 10:24 pm
sabi ni junjun: there is a huge bomb crater inside, ito siguro gustong angle ni binay para hindi mapahiya ang anak………
ita tie-up pa sa sinabi ni trillanes na the gov’t is behind the bombing……..
ayos na ang buto buto, lusot ang local gov’t at ayala sa criminal liablities………
November 1st, 2007 at 8:14 pm
In accidents, lives are lost randomly. In wars, lives are lost, either as a consequence of the physical conflict, or sacrificed for some just and patriotic objectives. In politics, lives are considered cheap by some players so sacrificed with intent far from noble, the objective mainly to derive benefits for self-interest. The Glorietta blast can only give us sleepless nights, and indeed this simple blogger is one with the victims and their family in their hours of sorrow, but the saddest part is that we may never know the truth. If, however, this incident is perpetrated by some political players, then, I’m sure justice will catch up with them in the end, as usually it does.