The Social Weather Station released its latest survey, and here’s an extract from their press release:
Senator Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III took the top spot in the people’s three best successors to President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo in 2010, according to the Third Quarter 2009 Social Weather Survey, fielded over September 18-21, 2009.
Sixty percent gave Sen. Aquino’s name in response to the question, “Sa ilalim ng kasalukuyang Konstitusyon, ang termino ni Pang. Arroyo ay hanggang sa taong 2010 lamang at magkakaroon ng halalan para sa pagka-pangulo sa Mayo 2010. Sinu-sino sa palagay ninyo ang mga magagaling na lider na dapat pumalit kay Pang. Arroyo bilang Presidente? Maaari po kayong magbanggit ng hanggang tatlong sagot.” [Under the present Constitution, the term of Pres. Arroyo is up to 2010 only, and there will be an election for a new President in May 2010. Who do you think are good leaders who should succeed Pres. Arroyo as President? You may give up to three names].
The next most popular successor was Sen. Manny Villar, who was mentioned by 37%.
Aquino and Villar were followed by former Pres. Joseph Estrada at 18%, Sen. Francis Escudero at 15%, and Sen. Mar Roxas at 12%.
The survey found Vice-Pres. Noli De Castro mentioned by 8%, Sen. Loren Legarda by 5%, Defense Sec. Gilberto Teodoro by 4%, Sen. Panfilo Lacson by 2%, and Makati Mayor Jejomar Binay by 2%.
At 1 percent each were MMDA Chairperson Bayani Fernando and Brother Eddie Villanueva.
Six percent could not give an answer, and 4% had no one to recommend.
The accompanying illustration, however, is more illuminating:
The question of the public’s own shortlist of successors for presidency has been tracked for two years now. Over that time frame, some names have remained in the running, and new ones have been added by the respondents. An interesting take on the results reported over the past two years can be found in Atheista.net’s It’s Time To Coin A New Term: Getting Roco’d, particularly in relation to two potential candidates, Loren Legarda and Francis Escudero.
Regarding Legarda, Atheista has this to say:
The sidelight perhaps is Loren Legarda. She probably won’t run for president; nor has she any chance of winning the top office for the rest of her life, but for a stretch of time from September 2007 to February 2009, Legarda was actually within striking distance of the top spot. This is reminiscent of the late Raul Roco’s performance in surveys prior to 2001 wherein he was constantly topping polls. While it was clear that Roco did himself in with the exposure of his lackluster political machinery, dodgy choice of senatoriables and *ugh* running mate; it is unclear what Legarda did to sabotage her own chances.
A lot of people hated Legarda for flip-flopping on Gloria – and ironically, this is despite the already growing hatred for the GMA Administration back in 2004 — but she still managed to bag 44% of the respondents’ votes of confidence back in 2007. I guess that only means that the 2004 incident was not the reason why she was dropped. The only hypothesis I could offer is that her supporters identified with Noynoy Aquino and Manny Villar – the two candidates whose popularity rose as hers was plummeting.
And here’s Atheista on Francis Escudero:
One interesting sidelight is how surprisingly bad Chiz Escudero’s showing has been. Despite topping the recent senatorial polls and taking every opportunity to spew out empty words on television, Escudero’s preference ratings have stayed pretty much the same over the last 2 years. There is no momentum at all. I won’t even be surprised if he finishes a distant third (or even fourth) when all is said and done. Joseph Estrada might even erode his chances of a third spot finish (not that it matters!) since Escudero’s base of support is supposedly the youth – a demographic that is also captured by the Aquino juggernaut.
Personally, I think the survey results are useful not in terms of presenting a snapshot of how voters might vote, were elections held today, but rather, who, in the public mind, are the real contenders at this point in time. I’ve suggested in the past that we’re seeing a return, in voter attitudes and orientation, towards seeing the presidential contest as a two party fight, which is a more natural order of things as far as a presidential system with no runoff elections is concerned.
From this perspective, the fight for the presidency is between Benigno Aquino III and Manuel Villar Jr. The other candidates will determine who gets to shave off votes from the leading contenders and who ends up losing more votes to the minor candidates more than the other.
Philippine Commentary in Why SWS Presidential Survey Does Not Add Up To 100% But 300% looks at the survey methodology, and proposes,
My take is that when the respondents get to that third possible choice, they end up naming their father, mother, wife, uncle, mayor, themselves! or some other unknown that together with everybody else’s third choices usually make up to half of the SWS data!
But as it should, the data does add up to 300% in all columns. I have a theory I cannot prove, that it is actually the second placer in these SWS polls that represents a kind of plurality choice. Noynoy has come out of nowhere (less than 0.14 percent!) to take a whopping –but sympathy confounded–60%.
Now there’s a graphic in the entry that’s quite interesting. Philippine Commentary for some time has been pointing out that what gets lost in all the reporting and commentary on the SWS surveys is the percentage of undecided voters or those who decide on no choices whatsoever:
The Chart above does not include the present survey, the first one which has Aquino manifesting himself as a top-of-mind choice among respondents as a potential president. If you remember the surveys, prior to the Aquino phenomenon, had Villar as the front-runner; in fact it seemed entirely possible he’d reached the critical 25% threshhold political pros considered the make-or-break level for a presidential candidate: it’s what would mark a candidate as the man to beat in a presidential election in a multi-candidate race.
There were questions raised about whether or not Villar’s reaching the crucial 25% level in the surveys represented his peaking too early or not; this question was complicated by the entry of Aquino, and initial survey findings of his obtaining startlingly high figures not only in Luzon, but the Visayas (Lito Osmena’s privately-commissioned Cebu survey) and Mindanao (Rodrigo Duterte’s privately commissioned Davao congressional districts survey).
Whether one doubts the usefulness or even methodology of the question SWS has been tracking for two years now, the question of whether or not Villar had peaked too soon, for example, or the percentage of support Aquino actually enjoys, can only be answered by surveys that ask potential voters to make specific choices based on who they’d vote for, were elections held that day.
There was a rider -a privately-commissioned set of questions- attached to the SWS September 18-21 Survey, which addresses the questions of who, specifically, voters would vote for, for the presidency, vice-presidency, and in terms of tandems.
Here are the results of that privately-commissioned rider set of questions:
Based on the above, Villar seems to have peaked; or at the very least, the entry of Aquino, whose national results are in harmony with previous location-specific surveys, and make him the front-runner, means the Villar campaign has to work doube-time; what I don’t know, because these were the only results provided me, is if there were other candidates reflected in the results or whether the rider limited the choices to the figures above.
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22 Feedbacks on "The real frontrunners"
hilippine Lawyer
Yes, these surveys will show who may be the popular candidates. But, that does not always mean they will be the front runners for their party.
Lets wait to see who will actually file their candidacy. The see which candidates the comelec will ban for early advertising then we can have a survey which will tell something.
Ricky La Vina
What is illuminating to me is to juxtapose results of the general survey and the private rider.
- there is correlation of perception of who is strong and who is the choice for president
- of the 60% gross perception of Aquino, 51% makes him first choice; this is a strong constituency
- of the 37% gross perception of Villar, 20% makes him first choice; this is baseline number for a serious contender
- of the 18% who thinks Estrada is strong, only 11% will vote for him; so those who worry about Estrada’s ‘mass appeal’ has nothing to worry about its convertibility into votes this time
- the fallouts of Aquino, 9% (60%-51%), and Villar, 17% (37%-20%), which is still a substantial 26%, will likely go to Estrada or Escudero, who already had a definite 11% and 8% respectively of the votes at this time; assuming Estrada and Escudero will divide that; then the three- Villar, Estrada, and Escudero – can muster from 20 to 24% of the votes
To sum up.
- this is a fight among opposition candidates
- the Aquino juggernaut has captured the ‘blue’ opposition (likening it to the blue liberals of the US Democrats), the Atenista-Cory crowd, the middle-middle class, the upper middle class, the ‘decent majority’ class of voters
- the ‘red’ opposition (not communist but more of red Republicans, conservatives or even rightists) is fragmented
- barring any unforeseen political paradigm-shifting event such as Cory’s death, Aquino can easily coast to victory because he is lucky to have such a tremendous political capital (which he can waste in a year’s time) and the other opposition votes will be divvied up by Villar, Estrada, and Escudero (or NPC)
- what will probably happen is that when this will dawn on the candidates, Villar, Estrada and Escudero (or actually, NPC or Danding) will come to a modus vivendi to present a credible challenge
santabanana
This is kind of similar to Tribune’s editorial today. The point is very simple for us to take. The recent survey showing Noynoy’s lead came from a question that asked for three choices. Therefore the score is really not out of one hundred percent but actually out of three hundred percent.
The interesting thing here is the addition of the rider question. As said that it was privately-commissioned, it is certain that the makers of that rider did not intend to include any administration bet. Does that not look like whoever commissioned it is afraid the survey might yield a good score for Gilbert Teodoro?
Pambihira
This survey only shows that 18% of the population is composed of complete morons.
Udoy
Well the credibility of surveys lies beyond 60- 75%. Well that can be real, the majority of our voters may in fact a total moron. The most active voter in our society belongs to the lower class, the hakot system. That’s the reason why many candidate targets the “masa”, it is sure win. You don’t need a good resume, a harvard degree, a good plataporma o outstanding agenda, simple lang basta nakikita ka sa tv at makamasa ka ok na. Second dyan yung mga new voters, kabataan, mga young and good looking politician naman na me resume ang candidate ng mga to, mas madaldal at laging laman ng news swak sa mga to, kesya nga naman sa matatanda na natutulog lang sa senado.
rlsbkk
the past elections except estrada showed that topping the surveys do not necessarily translate to winning the election. cheaters and opportunists are all over the place.
mang godo
This social weather station survey is like a weather forecast… NO Accuracy.
Imagine, only a handful or 1000 people are being asked out of 49 million Filipino voters.
Why not survey all the voters to be accurate.
This kind of survey will only confuse the people, the voters. They will think that they are winning and if loses, there goes the problem of never ending accusations of fraud.
While typhoons keep on devastating the country, why not help predict the outcome of storms to those who will be affected.
For the meantime, social weather or pag-asa weather… they are all weather weather lang…meaning not believable.
Tulisan
The numbers are indicative and may be predictive, but they are not decisive on the results of the May elections. What will be decisive in the next months depend on the following factors: 1) an economic crisis in Luzon stemming from government’s failure to recover from recent natural and man-made disasters, 2) people’s perceptions of who can bring a better future for the country (implicitly recognizing the terrible recent past), & 3) the incumbent government’s capacity to cheat and retain pockets of political influence in a context of crisis. Aquino-Roxas can essentially “ride the wave” of these factors as long as the majority of voters see them as ushers of hope and harbingers of change. These are what the numbers suggest. This what being front runners mean in the current context, and seven months will pass in a blink of an eye.
pandoy
i agree with pambihira.. i can’t believe there are still lots of people listening to estrada!
lordmatrix
i preferd noynoy and chiz over the others,.. theyr credible enough to be the next leader…
elmot
Loren and Chiz’s political ambitions for the two highest posts in the land will I think only result to futility.
Though surveys are definitive, they somewhat mirror what is going on in the mind of the voting public.
Francisco
I prefer Gilbert Teodoro for the president..
Kahit ako lang boboto sa kanya. i don’t mind..
Sa kanya ko nakikita ang hardwork like our GMA..
Trabaho lang walang personalan.
Terry
I think it is too early to tell whether or not Aquino has the chance to win. The official campaign period has yet to be started so there is probably a lot of room for change. What is assured though is that Villar probably killed his chances by campaigning too early. Now he has to start from scratch. I bet a “fresh” and “new” candidate would probably wipe him off the list.
mang godo
The test of time .
Economic crisis, climate change,calamities after calamities,destruction and displaced people.
A simple test of nature, our government is at a loss. They don’t know what to do. No disaster preparedness.
Our poor kababayans are the sufferers. They suffer because of neglect. Our rivers and lakes suffer because of people abuse.
The parade of candidates for president show lot of promise but only a promise.
Some show lot of credentials but mostly education credential, more on theory.
Some are soft spoken to portray as mabait.
Some say are moralists portraying to be clean.
Enough of this kind of candidates.
We need a strong leader, a visionary, an enforcer, a leader who will act but not talk, a leader visionary of the future.
Among these presidentiables, one stood as different.
A man whose strong personality reflects his strong leadership.
By theory he is more qualified as his education speaks for itself.
His actions is seen and tested in the battlefield and in disaster crisis.
The man… Gilbert Teodoro.
Taga Sampaloc
So what is in this survey that is a big deal? Is it not obvious that Noynoy leads the survey after all the media attention given to his family resume?
That could change when another guy gets far superior funding that he would have a better political machine than him.Don’t we get it?
The only relevant survey is one day before election.
chito
I think it is best to entrust the country’s Presidency to someone who have delivered the goods rather than to politicians who are quick to spew empty words to the people. What we urgently need is CHANGE in our political leadership. Only a Bayani Fernando can bring this much desired change in our political scene. He have shown and exercised the courage and political will in fighting for the cause of the oppressed and exploited middle class.
earl cauilan
i pray that noynoy and mar will be Able to maintain the huge lead that they are enjoying right now up to the run up in may next year.this will not only assure them of winning the elections but also it will give second thoughts to the shady characters planning to cheat in the elections.
Magbubukid
I’m sure it will be an Aquino - Villar bout in 2010 elections.
But I will vote for Noynoy Aquino instead of Villar. Why?.. Simple…. With so many millions of pesos being spent by Manny Villar for infomercials before, and so many trips abroad he did to woo OFW votes under the guise of helping OFW’s in distress, plus doleouts of millions for House & Lot in the guise of Gifts to selected OFW victims of abuse, the question remains - where does he intend to recoup all those millions once elected to the Office of the President? … It’s pure money invested to earn more money …. It’s mind boggling really!
nur
All Filipinos of voting age are either “sons” or daughters”. This situation can easily help every Filipino voter to effectively appreciates Noynoy and his personal and official mission in life now as successor of his illustrious parents: Ninoy and Cory.
A good son or daughter will never do something that will taint the sterling reputation and good deeds of his or her parents.
Considering for several decades now, we… Filipinos are in dire need of sincere and ethical leaders. Clearly, Noynoy becomes a sure and “run-away” winner for Philippine President in this coming 2010 national election.
The call on all concerned Filipinos is to protect Noynoy [when elected President] from the onslaught of unscrupulous politicians, his party-mates, would-be appointees, and “scheming” businessmen.
Jun Beltran
I’m looking Gilbert “Gibo” Teodoro will make a big surprise once the campaign perod starts. He doing a great job now and people will learn about his excellent credentials and sincerety to make our nation a stronger and better Philippines.
sa totoo lang
ang pagiging trapo ay hindi masamang katangian ng isang pulitiko. subalit dapat eto ay tulad ng pagka trapo ng mga nagisnan ng aking mga magulang at matatanda. ang masama ay ang pagiging trapo ng mga kandidato sa kasulukuyan, lalot lalo na ang paggawa ng kahit anong paraan para lang maguyo at makuha nag boto ng mamamayan. eto ang pagkabahala ko sa aking unang choice na si manny villar!
mang godo
I have never seen a person who is brilliant, intelligent, articulate and sharper than Obama, who is fond of affixing adjectives legal terms in a word, or than Marcos who has xerox mind.
He is Gilbert Teodoro… not only has education credential to back him up but has vision and ideas that can be put to work.
Gilbert Teodoro, the man who should lead the country.
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