By Dennis Posadas

The cover story in the November issue of Scientific American contends that renewable energy can already theoretically power 100% of energy needs, and totally replace carbon emitting sources by 2030. The article authors, Stanford University Professor Mark Jacobson and University of California Davis researcher Mark Delucchi, charted a roadmap to shift the power and transport sectors to renewable energy by 2030. Jacobson, who heads Stanford’s Energy Program, and Delucchi say this is possible by combining wind, concentrated solar, geothermal, tidal, solar photovoltaic, wave and hydropower and linking them together in an intelligent manner, using information available from meteorological sources for example,. Both authors base their arguments on a 2008 paper published in the Journal of Energy and Environmental Science, arguing that shifting vehicles from liquid fuels to electricity and cutting energy losses would make possible a global energy demand reduction of 30%.

Detractors argue that initial capital costs for some renewable sources are still expensive, and that some sources of renewable energy like wind and solar, are intermittent. The wind doesn’t always blow when you want it to and the sun doesn’t always shine, in a particular location, they argue.

However, these issues are slowly being solved both financially and technically. Cost considerations are now being offset by financing mechanisms like the Carbon Development Mechanism (a.k.a. “carbon credits”) and incentives like the feed-in-tariff popularized in Europe and in Asian laws like the Philippines Renewable Energy Act of 2008, which seeks to grow renewable energy from 1% in 2008 to 10% by 2018.

Technical intermittence issues are also surmountable with proper planning and coordination with weather forecasting agencies. Averaged over a large area and connected together through the grid, there is always a place where the wind and sun are available at any given moment. Storage mechanisms such as batteries, elevated lakes, and old salt caverns (through compressed air storage) can store excess energy for use when needed. Most intermittent renewable energy generators simply connect these power sources to the electric grid, and act as a source when available. Issues with connecting increasingly intermittent generating sources to the grid is increasingly being researched, along with the use of smart appliances with built in chips that can adjust their demand depending on the power situation at a given moment.

But we all know that what is theoretically possible, even in the face of scientific argument, is not always what happens. Take the Beta versus VHS, or even the Windows versus Linux argument, there will always be advocates and detractors of a particular technology.

Notwithstanding the fact that climate change skeptics still abound, on the question of large-scale adoption of renewable energy itself, the main barriers now are cost and practical considerations, whether these be technical or business related. To speak of 100% renewable energy is still to say the least, quite radical at this time, even among technologists. It is somewhat akin to John F. Kennedy’s challenge in the early sixties to the American scientific community, to send a man to the moon before the end of that decade. Theoretically possible yes. Practical? Maybe not for a while but if we make it a goal, it can be. We know where Kennedy’s gauntlet took us, and sometimes it simply takes the right challenge to go into a particular direction.

Don’t get me wrong. Aiming for a 100% renewable energy future will be fraught with challenges, and will take a lot of money, time, energy, and will have many failures along the way. The electric grid itself has to evolve, from generation to transmission, to distribution, to even the appliances to become smart so that all become intelligent and talk to each other just like the Internet, before we can even consider this as a practical possibility.

But let us begin.

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Dennis Posadas is the Editor of Cleantech Asia Online, and the author of Jump Start: A Technopreneurship Fable (Singapore: Pearson Prentice Hall, 2009). He is currently working on a new business fable on clean energy and climate change called Green Thinking.

DOST

The Philippines makes history once again as it joins a review body that would set the science education policy of an international organization for the next seven years.

The only ASEAN country to join the panel, the Philippines joins the big wigs in the international science education scene in reviewing the science education policy of the International Council for Science (ICSU), an international non-governmental organization devoted to international co-operation in the advancement of science.

Deliang Chen, Executive Director of ICSU, said the organization has confirmed the nomination of Science Education Institute Director Dr. Ester B. Ogena by the National Research Council of the Philippines (NRCP) to ICSU’s review panel.

In a letter to Ogena, Chen said the panel would be meeting twice a year starting next year in Paris to start its deliberation on the policy directions on science education.

According to Chen, the strategic review would include an assessment of ICSU’s past and current activities in relation to science education, a consideration of the broader context of science education and a recommendation on the future mandate for ICSU on science education.

The review panel will be chaired by Dr. Roberta Johnson, the executive director of the National Earth Science Teachers Association in the United States.

ICSU, formerly called the International Council of Scientific Unions, was founded in 1931 whose members include national scientific bodies, and international scientific unions, including the International Mathematical Union, the International Astronomical Union and the International Union of Pure and Applied Chemistry.

ICSU was founded to bring together natural scientists in international scientific endeavors. As of 2007, it comprises 113 multi-disciplinary National Scientific Members, Associates and Observers (scientific research councils or science academies) representing 133 countries and 29 international, single-discipline Scientific Unions. ICSU also has 24 Scientific Associates.

In response, Ogena expressed gratitude to the recognition given by the international to the Philippines.

“We will put forward the interest of the Filipino people as well as our ASEAN neighbors as we join the strategic review panel of ICSU’s science education policy,” she said.

Ogena said that it is the first time that the Philippines would be taking part in a science education policy review panel at the international level.

“We hope to take science education at a different level that would be more relevant to the people and to the recent developments we are experiencing,” she said.

By Alexander Villafania
INQUIRER.NET

MANILA, Philippines – The campaign season is in full swing and so some of the public executives are in hot pursuit of getting voters’ attention. This means many topics up for discussion are left unfinished, one of which is on nuclear power that was once hot topic among legislators especially with attempts to reactivate the mothballed Bataan Nuclear Power Plant (BNPP).

Quietly, while everyone is busy with electioneering, a team of researchers from the Senate Economic Planning Office (SEPO) released their policy brief on the country’s nuclear power capabilities.

The policy brief entitled “Powering the Future: Are We Ready for Nuclear Energy” identifies the Philippines’ current power resources and requirements, comparative power status with other countries, as well as the local and national regulations that the Philippines has to discuss and enforce before coming up with nuclear policies.

The policy brief was prepared by Harry Pasimio, Jr. and Peter Turingan and finished last September. A downloadable version is found in the official website of the Philippine Senate.

The brief uses reports from local and international reports as well.

It identified that the Philippines’ current power demand is pegged at about 9,700 megawatts for the entire country and continues to grow as the population grows.

By 2017, peak power demand would reach at least 13,000 megawatts.

Nearly 50 percent of this power is produced oil and coal based power plants. Another 21 percent is hydroelectric, 17 percent is from natural gas and 12 percent is from geothermal.

However, even with about 30 percent of power produced is coming from renewable energy, the majority of the plants are using fossil fuel, which produces 4,078 metric tons of carbon dioxide per gigawatt-hour.

Carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas, is associated with the negative effects of climate change. The Philippine government has also been working to reduce carbon emissions.

The increased power demand and plans to reduce ozone-depleting greenhouse gases are pushing options to look into cost-effective and environment-friendly power sources. Nuclear power thus became a major point of contention from legislators, scientists and environmentalists.

In particular was the proposal by Congressman Mark Cojuangco to revive the BNPP, which drew criticism from some scientists who said that the interpretation of certain scientific results were skewed by Cojuangco to justify the dilapidated plant’s reactivation.

Given these situations, the policy brief made one conclusion: that the realization of the country’s nuclear plans would take years to complete unless the government implements many measures to ensure that nuclear power is safely established, distributed, disposed and regulated.

“Current efforts in both Houses of Congress to fast track the rehabilitation and operation of the BNPP are akin to putting the cart before the horse. Before the government can operate the BNPP or any other NPP for that matter, it must first undertake the preliminary business of getting its nuclear power program back on track by updating the scientific/technical, legislative, and regulatory frameworks that will guide the development of the country’s nuclear power industry.”

The points raised by the SEPO policy brief already points to a problem that legislators must first act on before rushing into having nuclear power. Hopefully, these points will be remembered by the next set of legislators after next year’s elections.

Department of Science and Technology

Fourteen students, including two sisters, from 10 schools in the Philippines obtained the highest honors in the recently concluded 2009 Australian Mathematics Competition (AMC).

Four students from the Philippines got AMC medals for their outstanding performance. They are Seanne Ng of Saint Jude Catholic School, Justrin Edric Yturzaeta of Jubilee Christian Academy , Julius Vincent Sy of St. Stephen’s High School and Amiel Sy of PSHS-Main Campus. Sy got a perfect score in the AMC.

Sisters Audrey Celine and Czarina Lao, both from Saint Jude Catholic School, netted the AMC Prize Award, the highest award given to AMC competitors for being at the top 1 percent of the competitors.

Other students who got the Prize Award are Lormes Pedeglorio of Butuan City Special Education Center, Miguel Lorenzo Ildesa of Parents for Education (PAREF)-Westbridge School, Adrian Sy of Saint Jude Catholic School, Aldric Cristoval Reyes of Chiang Kai Shek College, John Russel Virata of Gideon Academy, Alvin Uy Lim of Quezon City Science High School, Emiliano Tan of Philippine Science High School (PSHS) -Main Campus, and Jake Gacuan of University of the Philippines.

Besides the 14 students who got top awards, 43 other students from different schools in the Philippines obtained High Distinction honors for being at the top 2 percent of examinees in their year level.

Eleven students also obtained a Prudence Award for garnering the most number of correct answers from question 1 of the AMC.

The AMC is a correspondence type exam, administered by the Australian Mathematics Trust, aimed at highlighting the importance of mathematics as part of the curriculum and discovering talents in mathematics. It is conducted in cooperation with the Mathematics Trainers’s Guild and the Australian Mathematics Trust.

Six students also from different schools in Metro Manila obtained perfect scores in the 2009 Rio Tinto Big Science Competition. They are Johanna Wileen Go of St. Jude Catholic School, Henry Jefferson Morco and Richard Milante of Chiang Kai Shek College, Timothy Augustus Ong of Xavier School, Elvis Jeremy Ayroso of PSHS-Main Campus and Ariana Benipayo of St. Paul College-Pasig.

All the winners of the AMC and the Rio Tinto were presented their awards today (October 19) at the Sofitel Hotel, Pasay City .

Dr. Ester B. Ogena, Director of the Science Education Institute, expressed hopes that the students who obtained top marks in the said competitions would take courses in science and engineering when they go to college.

“The recent typhoons that has been hitting our country and the devastation it has left us shows that we need more scientists and engineers to counter the onslaught it causes,” she said.

Ogena said that besides encouraging math-inclined students to excel in international competitions, the SEI also provides help to students through science scholarships at the undergraduate and graduate levels..

“In the undergraduate level, we continue to provide scholarships to deserving students that help them to realize their dream of becoming scientists and engineers. Through the Advanced Science and Technology Human Resource Development (ASTHRD) and the Engineering for Research and Development Technology (ERDT) Programs, we provide enticing packages for students and graduates to pursue graduate studies in science and engineering,” she said.

by Dennis Posadas

The recently held GTZ symposium on renewable energy held last October 8 at the Fully Booked in Bonifacio High Street was an interesting example of how investors and the public are now interacting with our new Renewable Energy Act. The passage of the 2008 Renewable Energy Act of the Philippines has paved the way for an increase in investments in the renewable energy sector. One of the areas that have benefited is the wind energy sector. It is estimated that the Philippines theoretically has around 76,000 MW in wind energy capacity, based on studies conducted by the U.S. National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and the Philippines Department of Energy.

It was reported in the Inquirer.net that the Department of Energy last September awarded three companies four new wind energy service contracts—Energy Development Corp. (PSE: EDC) for its planned 86-MW wind farm in Burgos, Ilocos Norte; UPC Asia Corp. for its 50-MW wind project in Pagudpud, Ilocos Norte; and PetroEnergy Resources Corp., which bagged two contracts for a 30-MW project in Sual, Pangasinan and a 30-MW project in Nabas, Aklan. Also, Energy Logics Philippines Inc.’s pre-commercial contract for a 120-MW wind farm in Pasuquin, Ilocos Norte, was converted to a wind energy service contract.

Several joint ventures between local businessmen and foreign companies and investors have also been announced in the local dailies, among those that have been reported include the Alterenergy Partners joint venture with Eurus Energy Japan and Korea East West Power Co. to identify projects in the 30 to 40 MW range; and the French wind turbine manufacturer Vergnet Group, said to be looking for joint venture partners.

The rule of thumb given is that each megawatt of capacity costs around USD $2m to 2.5m dollars. At present, aside from small isolated micro-wind installations in remote communities, the largest one at present is the 33MW wind farm in Bangui Bay, Ilocos Norte run by the Northwind Power Corporation, which contributes only 0.21% of the total electricity generated in the country, that is when the wind is blowing.

The 7,100 islands of the Philippines make it difficult to make electricity available in many areas, particularly those that are isolated from the main electric grid. Most large islands with large populations, such as Luzon, Panay, Cebu, Mindanao, and others have their own generation, distribution and utility companies to service their areas.

However, smaller islands with sparse populations or mountainous areas are a particular challenge. In these cases, sometimes the only practical solution is to use renewable energy power sources (e.g. wind, solar, biomass) or diesel powered generators.

Because wind, like solar, is an intermittent energy source, there has to be a means of storage to compensate for times when it is not generating power. In isolated off-grid areas, for smaller wind systems, this normally means a battery. In countries like the U.S., in the Texas Panhandle for example, T. Boone Pickens’s backup of choice is a natural gas turbine. But for the Philippine setting, the typical approach much like in most countries is to simply connect these large wind systems to the electric grid, and to simply sell power to the grid when it is generating. Anyway, just like in the U.S., the Philippines operates a spot market for electricity. In the case of renewable energy, a special spot market for renewable energy has been developed by the Philippine government to guarantee that there will be buyers for producers of renewable energy electricity.

One concern of some investors is the limit on foreign ownership. It is defined in the Philippine constitution that in certain key industries/sectors, foreign ownership is to be a minority, with a slight majority going to a Philippine partner. For some investors, it is not an issue, but for some it is. As former Energy Secretary and now Alterenergy Partners CEO Vince Perez mentioned during the GTZ symposium, at the moment the only choice is to look for a trusted Philippine partner to work with.

Another concern is in the way the public may perceive the Feed-in-Tariff, which is a key subsidy mechanism to attract investors to invest in renewable energy in the Philippines. During the Ramos administration, the government suddenly had to build power plants to meet a large capacity shortfall, and to do this, they had to entice investors with a ‘take or pay’ scheme meaning that even if the power was not being used, electricity utilities and therefore consumers had to shoulder part, if not all, of the cost of the unused generated power. There was such a big public outcry, especially in this country where the ‘cheapest power possible’ mentality rules, that it will sometimes if not always be difficult to pass measures that subsidize for example, renewable energy. Just like the personal computer and the semiconductor industry, renewable energy requires a steady market in order for private sector technologists to be attracted to constantly improve it. Unfortunately, the appetite for renewable energy seems to be correlated with the price of oil. If oil is cheap, the appetite for renewable energy disappears and vice versa. The Feed-in-Tariff hopes to counteract this tendency.

Personally, most people would like to see renewable energy succeed in the Philippines. The severe flooding brought about by typhoon Ondoy has brought home more awareness of the need for low carbon energy sources. Supporters of renewable energy hope that electricity consumers will actually step up to the plate and pay a little extra for renewable energy through the feed-in-tariff, in order to increase the returns for the companies and investors that go into this sector, already saddled by high upfront capital expense costs for wind (currently $2.5m per MW) and solar (currently $2/watt for silicon based photovoltaics and $1/watt for less efficient thin film based photovoltaics) and the threat of cheap oil. Besides, electricity consumers in the Philippines already pay a foreign currency adjustment charge for imported oil used in power generation. There is no reason why they should not accept a feed-in-tariff adder, given that they will no longer need to pay the foreign currency charge for that portion of the electricity bill.

Otherwise if consumers do not agree to pay the piper, then coal, the current king of the hill in terms of price, will really become entrenched as the power source of choice.

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Dennis Posadas is the editor of Cleantech Asia Online, and the author of Jump Start: A Technopreneurship Fable (Singapore: Pearson Prentice Hall, 2009). He is is currently working on a new business fable on climate change and clean energy.