February 2010 Archives

By Ko Ko Thett

Editor's note: Ko Ko Thett is a Burma analyst based in Helsinki. This article was initially available at http://www.irrawaddy.org/opinion_story.php?art_id=17863.

HELSINKI, Finland--For Burma politicians, policy advocates, activists, watchers, sympathizers, scholars, do-gooders, and donors, frustration is a fact of life since potential for change into a democratic society has eluded everyone for more than 20 years.

Mass movements and revolutions, informed and inspired by the 1988 overthrow of the Burma Socialist Program Party, have made no headway since 1988. While each failed mass movement has had tragic human costs to the lives of individuals involved in it, the regime's weathering of each storm seems to have prepared them better for the next.

The new Burmese capital of Naypyidaw is now conveniently located at least 300 kilometers from each of the most populous cities, Rangoon in the South and Mandalay in the North, so people power cannot come near the government's seat of power.

The country's economy in real terms has worsened for the bottom 50 million, and the increased polarization of wealth offers little hope for those who argue "economy precedes politics."

The hardship for the people was so great even the sangha, who are supposed to be above the mundane world, came out en masse in late 2007, in what would be known as the Saffron Revolution.

The recent series of sit-ins for higher wages by Rangoon garment industry workers, most of whom are ladies carrying for extensive families, is just another indication of the dire straits of the common people. In Burma, one employed person may be supporting five unemployed persons--social protection by the state is non-existent save a measly pension scheme for veterans and former government employees.

Whereas the Burmese regime has made the best of its geopolitics and regionalization vis-à-vis the Asean countries, China and India, globalization and all its purported glories have passed over the country. If anything the global thirst for energy and the global security paranoia have favored the Burmese generals. As such, other factors indicative of democracy, such as the emergence of an enlightened middle class, the existence of a strong and independent civil society, the rescue of the country by a disillusioned political leadership within the government remain far-fetched.

The staunch opposition led by Aung San Suu Kyi has been the "voice of hope" for the politically minded section of the society and their Western supporters, but they have not shaken the regime since government functionaries at large remain unaffected. It can be argued that the "unaffectedness" has been caused by the regime's systematic persecution that is designed to isolate charismatic dissidents from the people. Inevitably, the Burmese opposition, as well as their Western supporters, are handy scapegoats that the regime can blame for its own failures.

The entrenched and institutionalized conflict between the ethnic autonomy groups and the central regime has also served as a way for the Burmese military to justify its militarist expansionist policies. Even natural and man-made calamities of great magnitude, such as Cyclone Nargis and the famine in Chin State, which would have huge potential for change in other societies appear to have only hardened the regime's callousness toward the suffering of the people.

Make no mistake. The regime's initiative, the "Road Map to Democracy," does not offer a glimmer of hope. All institutions advocated by the author Robert Dahl as vital for any large-scale democracy: elected officials, free fair and frequent elections, freedom of expressions, alternative sources of information, associational autonomy, inclusive citizenship, are nowhere to be found on the Road Map, except for "elected officials" who are widely anticipated to be elected in a controlled, regime-friendly parliament. In addition, the threat of another military coup always lurks beneath the current Constitution. Another putsch means going back to the late 1980s, if not the early 1960s.

Yet no matter how well prepared the regime is, the 2010 elections, and all the elections thereafter, will not be foolproof. Inasmuch as the looming elections have cornered the opposition into a "double bind," the regime is also acutely aware that it is walking a tight rope holding a balancing pole they call the 2008 Constitution. The regime has to balance between two inherently contradictory quests: one for national and international legitimacy and the other for the top generals' need to remain as sole arbitrators of state power, which is essential for them to be able to avoid the fate of fallen dictators.

If the elections are free, fair, and inclusive, as the international community insists, the regime risks losing a bigger-than-expected slide of their power--even within the current constitutional context. If the elections are not free and fair, the regime will be met with continued international condemnation and local resistance, a continuation of the status quo.

It would not be surprising if the generals in Naypyidaw are as apprehensive about the 2010 elections as the opposition itself. Perhaps, the opposition should treat the 2010 elections as an opportunity for change, including much desired constitutional change.

If history is any guide, elections all over the world have undermined colonial and authoritarian systems, rather than entrenched them. Elections, even defined and sponsored by repressive regimes for their own sake, usually backfire since they tend to arouse political debate, increase political awareness, and promote people's participation in politics.

Or The Audacity of Love

(Editor's note: Noel Bautista is Papa to Nicole, who is turning 17. Noel calls himself "an accidental migrant" in Wellington, New Zealand. This is his "love letter" to his daughter.)

Dearest Nicole,

Terminal, chronic presumptuousness is an ailment that is very hard to recover from, as the name of the condition implies, and especially as regards your unica hija.

I labor under the misimpression that you will heed the counsel of the years, my counsel, no matter how flawed it is, and that despite the many mistakes I have made in my life, you will find it worth your time to listen to your old man.

One caveat though: On the subject I am about to rant and rave, I am no expert, in fact I have stumbled, risen, and stumbled again, many times over. I have only the benefit of committing the same errors enough times to know that you learn only through your mistakes, and that the race goes not to the one who runs the fastest, but to the one who keeps on running.

** ** ** *

I cannot emphasize enough what I say here now: Love is a powerful thing, it's not just a romantic platitude to say that Love makes the world go round. It is a primeval, elemental force that all the wisest men in the world have not even begun to understand. It is like a potent talisman that unleashes tremendous power to a prudent user, but wreaks havoc to those who do not learn to harness its awesome strength.

Look anak, I'm not trying to be vague, pahocus-pocus sounding, or purposely trying to conjure obscure images of otherworldly powers. Love is very real, and very definitely life-changing. It literally creates and shapes destinies before our very eyes, so fundamentally that we take it for granted and are largely unaware of it.

By posing just three questions that have heretofore always remained at the back of your mind but which you've been itching to ask, I can show you how Love is related to almost all of them.

Probably the most obvious is: Despite the love that existed between your mother and me for many years, why did it not survive beyond your adolescence, for all its vaunted longevity and intensity?

The gift of love that has been generated and nurtured between two people is not enough to accept and allow its existence. To borrow from Peter Parker's Uncle Ben: With great love comes great responsibility. You have to recognize that--especially after the honeymoon phase of a relationship--you progress from the stage of being in love with to loving a person. I'm not saying your mother and I didn't do this, probably we just didn't do it long enough. For that I am truly sorry.

One good lesson though that we can cull from that is: Just because one and the other are destined to be together does not mean they will live happily ever after. In fact, a declaration (and affirmation) of love often signals the start of an adventure in dedicating one's life for your loved one.

I go to the second question you seem to have asked me in gestures and in phrases. Given his rather reckless adventures in romance, is your brother not loving too much, or too hard?

You may laugh at my response, but I think it may be the opposite. What he truly loves, he cannot possess. And to compensate for this, he turns to those companionships that will not reject him. Do you know what I mean? Rather than being rejected by what he considers pure, noble, and ideal, he prefers to dwell within the comfort zone of those who will accept him.

It sounds trite but it is often true. Men offer love for intimacy, while women provide intimacy in return for what they perceive is love. While women learn early enough not to extend expectations based on this reality, men take a little longer. But then again, for some reason, women, who I submit are smarter than men, seem to have a blind spot in matters of the heart. Both for your and my peace of mind, I sincerely hope you learn from the mistakes of your parents and heed the lessons of history.

On that note, you should probably just give your brother a little more time.

Which brings us to a third question, which you have asked in many forms: If it comes to such a point, do I follow my head or my heart, when I feel like falling in love with someone?

The only way I can answer such a query (which I hope doesn't translate to reality in the near future) is notwithstanding all the fear generated in me (and most probably your mother as well), I go so far as to say this: If you dare to love someone whom you feel in your heart of hearts deserves such love, you will not regret it. Scary words from a scared dad, but engraved in stone. Ironically, not all the purest and noblest intentions will assure that you will have made the right choice. For in matters of love, who can tell, until the day we die, whether or not we have made the right choice?

 ** ** ** **

What I'm trying to say, anak, I guess is that you should not deny yourself the discovery of Life that Love makes possible, but at the same time not be overwhelmed by the crests and troughs of the rollercoaster that is Love. It is one of the truly defining experiences of our existence, but it comes at a great price: Love consumes you, and if you allow it to do so, it overcomes you pitilessly, remorselessly, till you are but an empty shell.

If I sound too passionate about a subject, it is only because I know the time is soon coming when you will fall in love. At least, you can fall back on your father's feeble words.

Promise you'll tell me if and when you do fall in love, OK? I just want to see the guy. Grrr.

I'm very lucky to have such a wonderful daughter like you, I love you and I miss you always.

Please kiss sabay hug your bros for me OK? Happy Valentine's Day!

Papa