If you’ve been reading about the foreign exchange markets long enough, you know that forecasting where the peso will end up, say, at the end of the year is futile. I daresay the foreign exchange markets is as fickle, or even more so, than the lady next to you and as temperamental as the toddler next door!
During the height of the Asian financial crisis in 1997 when the peso-dollar rate was the staple story in business pages, I spent so much time tracking the foreign exchange markets that one night, I woke up after a nightmare mumbling “The peso! The peso!”
That can happen to you when you wait for hours until late at night sprawled on the floors of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas just to get first crack at what the Monetary Board members talked about. 
But, hey, it’s fun to guess where the foreign exchange rate will go! So here’s an offer. Push that comment button and publish in MoneySmarts your fearless forecast for the peso-dollar rate by the end of the year. The one who comes closest and sends his forecast fastest will get a free personal finance book for Christmas. :-)
What do you say?
A worker at the Philippine central bank recovers spilled bundles of 100 peso notes from the stacking machine at the currency production plant in Manila. (AFP PHOTO ROMEO GACAD)
This photo taken 02 September 2003 shows an inspector checking freshly stamped 25 centavos coins at a stamping machine at the Central Bank’s currency and minting plant in Manila. (AFP PHOTO ROMEO GACAD)
January 26th, 2008 at 1:40 am
The Peso will range from 35 to 42 during 2008. The dollar is basically without any value but because of risk aversion and no suitable alternate currency or metal will hold some value.
December 18th, 2007 at 3:06 pm
Off the topic guys.
I’m an OFW with an average dollar earner. I am quite disappointed of thing that even though our peso is going stronger but nobody feels it effect. Instead prices shoots up and much more burden to ordinary person. How we wish that it will go back as before (56.00 is to 1USD). My forecast on 2008 is 46.15 is to a dollar.
December 17th, 2007 at 2:53 pm
My guess is its gonna be 40.24
December 7th, 2007 at 1:51 pm
39.89
December 5th, 2007 at 8:53 pm
41.25
November 25th, 2007 at 7:20 am
P42.00
November 23rd, 2007 at 6:00 pm
i think it’s gonna be 43.10
November 23rd, 2007 at 9:59 am
I think if the dollar continues down the path its going were all going to be in trouble, The U.S. central bank is not doing its job, by lowering interest rate’s when inflation is a lot worse than they will admit. one economist estimate’s inflation at 12 to 13%. Why they are fixing the numbers is any ones guess. During the currant administration, things have gotten much worse. peso 42 to 43
November 18th, 2007 at 2:24 pm
44.68
November 16th, 2007 at 6:20 am
40.5 - 41 peso / dollar
November 8th, 2007 at 9:41 pm
I predict 42.70 on 12/31/07 and then it will start going back up to about 44.00 by 1/31/08.
November 3rd, 2007 at 4:39 am
US$1 = PhP42.80
November 2nd, 2007 at 7:50 am
end of Jan2007- 42.75
November 1st, 2007 at 6:31 am
P43.1 to a $
October 31st, 2007 at 1:25 pm
end of 2007, USD would be around 43.60-44.10 pesos to USD1.00
October 31st, 2007 at 11:53 am
by the end of the year the dollar rate will be between 42 - 40 pessos to 1 dollar
October 10th, 2007 at 12:17 am
my forecast is 1$ = 41.10-42.60 php
October 8th, 2007 at 6:16 pm
aw..i am late…i would like a dollar to be in P46 by end of 2007.
October 8th, 2007 at 4:26 pm
my forecast is 42.30 to a dollar comes Holiday Season
October 3rd, 2007 at 11:07 pm
Mine is P43.20. It could go further though to $42 because of the remmitance this december but I’ll stick with my first one.
October 3rd, 2007 at 6:44 am
i usd = 42.95 php
October 2nd, 2007 at 5:27 pm
i’m hours late.
my bet is P43.77 to a dollar.
October 1st, 2007 at 6:36 pm
hey guys, great going on your predictions. Keep them coming, cause your deadliest deadline to join this game is tomorrow, 12 noon.
October 1st, 2007 at 3:12 pm
P41.56-$1, inflation will shoot up to 5.1%, I hope the government will continue to watch both inflation and the exchange rate, good job.
October 1st, 2007 at 4:39 am
1$=46 by end of 2007
advanz meri xmas to all
archie
October 1st, 2007 at 4:36 am
i think the forex 1$=46php by the end of year 2007.advanz meri xmas
archie
September 29th, 2007 at 11:12 pm
I am an OFW, am losing at least 2% every one peso appreciation…wow, reality really bites…….
Anyway I pick U$D to be 42-44 pesos.
September 29th, 2007 at 9:46 pm
My guess is 1 USD = 43.5 Php
September 29th, 2007 at 2:45 pm
My guess:
$1 = Php 43.21
September 28th, 2007 at 9:16 pm
fearless forecast: 41.75 - 42
September 28th, 2007 at 9:11 am
$1 = P42.72
September 28th, 2007 at 5:23 am
peso to $ will be 45.5
September 28th, 2007 at 12:50 am
US$1 = Php43.00
September 27th, 2007 at 4:44 pm
I’ll go for P 44.44. Which makes Ben Abalos’ P 200M bribe worth an even $4.5M
September 27th, 2007 at 3:47 pm
i’m hoping my dollar earnings would strengthen the peso to 44.31 by end of the year.
September 27th, 2007 at 3:43 pm
43.41
September 27th, 2007 at 3:20 pm
I am an OFW & would be very happy with a pegged exchange rate of Php 50.00 to the dollar which I suppose won’t be happening. So I’ll be happy with a Php 45.45 standing come Christmastime. Season’s Greetings everyone!
September 27th, 2007 at 2:19 pm
My guess , peso to dollar: 38-40 by the end of the year
September 27th, 2007 at 2:02 pm
The first rule in forecasting is don’t forecast until it happens. Notice experts always ‘forecast’ a bull market when prices are already high. But hardly anyone forecasts a bull when prices are very low.
Follow this rule and your forecast will always be right. You’ll make money not in investing but in financial advisory fees. That’s the trade secret of financial experts.
September 27th, 2007 at 1:31 pm
47.38
September 27th, 2007 at 1:14 pm
P44 to a dollar
September 27th, 2007 at 12:47 pm
here’s my guess: 43.75
September 27th, 2007 at 12:21 pm
Sorry! off topic.
Just want to ask salve and everybody else whats your opinion on MLM?
What about this new MLM company JC Spice. And i recently known that the same people behind 1st quadrant like the tactacan-defensor are behind this company.
Would you advice people to go into this kind of bussines?
September 27th, 2007 at 11:49 am
Yeah I agree. Guessing the exchange rate is as erratic as a lady’s mood. But since at stake is a free personal finance book, I’d likely take my chances. 1 USD = 45.5 PHP +/- 0.5%
September 27th, 2007 at 10:21 am
this is fun!
I say eop exchange rate is at 43.50
September 27th, 2007 at 9:35 am
my fearless forecast for the peso-dollar rate by the end of the year is
1 USD = 44.40 PHP
September 27th, 2007 at 9:19 am
i think its 43.50php=1$
September 27th, 2007 at 8:41 am
42.51
hihihi… i like this game.
: )
first time i left a comment after months of just reading all your articles.
nice column, by the way.
September 27th, 2007 at 8:34 am
My forecast is 1USD = 43.50
September 27th, 2007 at 8:08 am
i bet PHP 43.5 - 45 to 1 US$
September 27th, 2007 at 6:21 am
the peso should remain at 48 and above so that ofw can live another day..so what if it goes down to 40-42 as i can see no progess from the country you are all bastard corrupt..
September 27th, 2007 at 1:47 am
downward trend of the dollar not the peso.
September 27th, 2007 at 1:45 am
I’m comfortable with the 46 to 47 range of the peso to the dollar even if most of the indicators are pointing a downward trend.
September 27th, 2007 at 1:34 am
hmmm with the “on-slaught” of remittances….I’d hazard a guess… PhP 40-42 to a US1
September 26th, 2007 at 9:37 pm
Hi,
Any plans for doing also a stock pick challenge? where you can select and recommend your stocks and see how it turns out within a given period?
I’m currently betting on San Miguel B-shares which is at a bargain now at P61/share. Details on why i think this is so can be found in http://parttimeinvestor.blogspot.com/
September 26th, 2007 at 8:27 pm
My guess-cast
1 USD = 46.17 PHP
September 26th, 2007 at 8:04 pm
43.25