From the looks of it, Gnoysa is likely to win the forex trading game with a P41.56 forecast for end of December!
The peso on Wednesday breached the P41 level, hitting P41.99 before closing at P42.03 against the dollar. When the forex market opened this morning, the peso was at P41.90 again and the weighted average as of 10.44 a.m. today was P41.887 to the dollar.
Both inflows from overseas Filipino workers sending money home for the holidays and investors taking positions in the stock market lifted the peso further. And because we all expect the money to continue to come in, this only means you gotta get ready to see the peso rising even more in the next weeks.
Former Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Felipe Medalla sees a P38 to a dollar scenario as a very likely one in the coming months, unless the government adopts the right policy mix to keep the peso from appreciating.
Medalla thinks that if the national government decides to become a big buyer of dollars and use these to prepay its dollar-denominated debt, the local currency might slow down its appreciation enough to keep exporters and OFWs from suffering more.
He tells me that this, of course, should be closely coordinated with the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas, so that there are no surprises, I suppose in terms of volatility.
The monetary police have an unviable job. Can you imagine how hard it would be to manage everyone’s expectations on the currency? On the one hand, the spike in global oil prices would fry us all if the peso has not appreciated. Imports are also cheaper, and this might make our Christmas expenses a lot lower. On the other hand, as everyone has been saying, OFWs are really feeling the pinch and so are dollar-earning industries like the call center business.
Medalla, with his usual wit and candor, says the government could try two more options. Peg the peso to two or three currencies like the euro and yen, or use capital controls – that’s economist-speak for controlling the inflow and outflow of short-term money. These two other options, of course, carry with them their own difficulties. Like who chooses which foreign money should come in and which should stay out? Or which currencies should the peso be pegged to? I don’t know about you, but I think these two options are radical to begin with and would most like turn off the conservative guys up there in Bangko Sentral.
In the meantime, enjoy the day and focus on simple things to enjoy like family, the upcoming holidays and friends.
August 5th, 2008 at 6:51 pm
sabi ko yung kontra peso dolyar ngayon laban sa dolyar hindi yung dati NGAUN..!!
bingi talagah oo
December 11th, 2007 at 2:59 pm
hi pearlas, its true that some people call themselves “economists” just because they graduated with a degree in economics. i don’t think that term should be brandished about just by anyone who knows their econ 101. but i also happen to think that Medalla is one of the best in his field, both because i have read many of his papers and i have seen him in action in NEDA. because he IS good in his field, he is not afraid to speak out, let his opinion be heard and is open-minded enough to subject his opinions to public discussion and critique. that’s more gutsy than people who criticize only when they are anonymous.
December 11th, 2007 at 1:46 pm
Ang daming economista! Maraming Pilipino pala talaga ay armchair economists - mahuhusay magsalita at mag-reklamo, kung ano-ano pang economic theories ang nasasabi. Everyone seems to know what’s wrong with our economic policies.
December 11th, 2007 at 12:01 am
Some guys here pretend to be OFWs and have the gall to ask us true OFWs to sacrifice for the sake of the country. Well if I wanted to be a hero i would have gone to the Pen and not waste my time out here in the desert sun watchin my hard earned dollars shrink in value while the price of commodoties keep gettin higher, while they give huge dole-outs in the palace and the President junkets with her children, grandchildren, yayas, alalalays, congressmen etc. and a young girl commits suicide because her old man could not give her 100 pesos for her class project (these teachers should be hanged, our children are exposed to corruption at such a young age, no wonder this country is so morally bankrupt!)…Gen. Lim was right, dissent without action is consent..No matter how you feel or think you are right, if you do not act, you’re not part of the solution, you are part of the problem! So dont expect us OFWs to be heroes..
December 10th, 2007 at 11:53 pm
Ayun sa ating mga nababasa mula sa mga eksperto, ang lagay ng kalakalang pangdaigdig at mahinang ekonomiya ng ilang mayayamang bansa na malaki ang impluwensya sa halaga at antas ng dolyar, ang ilan sa mga sanhi ng patuloy na pagbaba ng US Dolyar laban sa maraming uri ng salapi (currencies). Dito sa ating bansa ng Pilipinas, bukod sa mga kadahilanang yan ay may tatlo pang itinuturong kadahilanan:
1. Pagpasok ng dolyar mula sa mga mamumuhunan (investors)
2. Remittance ng mga OFW
3. Mababang demand ng US-Dolyar sa Pilipinas
Sa mga tinuran sa itaas wala tayong magawa anuman ang panawagang gawin natin sa gobyerno, in fairness hindi sa wala silang ginagawa pero napakabagal ng kanilang aksyon - baka nga dumating na sa “Aanhin pa ang damo kung patay na ang kabayo???”.
Uulitin ko ang “real score” ng mga dahilan at kung ano magagawa natin:
1. Dikta ng kalakalang pangdaigdig = WALA TAYONG MAGAGAWA
2. Ekonomiya ng mayayamang bansa pangunahin na ang Estados Unidos (US) = WALA TAYONG MAGAGAWA
3. Pagpasok ng dolyar mula sa mamumuhunan = BAKIT NATIN PIPIGILIN, MABUTI ITO DI BA?
4. Remittance ng mga OFW = MASELAN ITO, PERO MAY TALAKAY AKO DITO
5. Mababang demand ng US-Dolyar sa Pilipinas = PALAGAY KO MERON TAYONG MAGAGAWA DITO???
Eto po ang opinyon ko tulungan niyo ako baka sakaling OK? Dun ako sa #4 at #5 si-sentro.
Sa #5 ang sabi mababa daw ang demand ng US-Dolyar = opinion ko “Tumulong tayo tumaas ang DEMAND, gumawa tayo ng DEMAND!”
eh PAANO nga??? = opinion ko “Nasa krisis tayong mga OFW ngayon, tayo lang ang makakatulong sa sarili natin hindi kung sino pa man kaya kailangan nating mag-sakripisyo: Lahat ng assets nating nabili nung mataas pa ang US-Dolyar ay ibenta natin ngayon at itabi ang ilang parte para sa gastusin ng pamilya natin para pu-puwede tayong huwag muna magpadala kahit isang buwan o dalawa, at yung natira ay ibili natin ng US-Dolyar sa legal na ahensya. Dahil malaki ang halaga ng piso marami itong mabibiling US-Dolyar! Dahil malakas ang piso tutubo tayo sa pagbebenta ng assets! Kamakailan ay may panawagang huwag magpadala ng remittance maraming kontra dito dahil kawawa ang mga pamilya natin sa Pilipinas pero kung may gagastusin sila mula sa pinagbilhan ng assets hindi sila maaapektuhan hindi man tayo magpadala. Pag pinagsanib mo itong dalawa, namimili ng US-Dolyar ang mga OFW sa Pilipinas at konti ang remittance = TATAAS ANG DEMAND NG US-DOLYAR??? Kung may epekto ito sa magiging antas ng P-Piso eh di magaling at kikita din tayo sa binili nating US-Dolyar! May mabuti ding idudulot ito sa gobyerno dahil dagdag kita ito sa kanila sa pamamagitan ng buwis sa bentahan ng assets. Kikita pa ang iba nating kababayan na tumatayong “middle-man” sa bentahan. Pag bumuti na ulit ang sitwasyon ay huwag kalimutang mag-invest ulit tayo sa Pilipinas at ito ang sandata natin sa ganitong krisis = “investments” (lupa, ginto, stocks, mutual funds, etc.). Lubhang mahalaga na bawat OFW ay magsinop ng kinikita at mamuhay ng simple huwag ubos-ubos biyaya. Panahon na para maging ‘player’ tayo sa market at hindi pwedeng iasa lang sa gobyerno.
Sasabihin ng iba “eh wala naman kaming assets na maibebenta” - kung wala kabayan mag-umpisa ka na ngayong magtipon ng bahagi ng iyong kinikita anumang hirap ng buhay kaya natin ito. Bumili lang ang lahat ng OFW ng 100USD sa Pilipinas = milyong USD yun! Para naman sa merong assets sana magkaisa tayo sa sakripisyo.
Opinion ko lang po!