(FAST GROWTH. NSCB Secretary General Dr. Romulo A. Virola tells the press that the economy expanded by 7.3% in 2007, the fastest growth in 31 years. In photo left to right: NSCB-ESO Director Raymundo J. Talento, Dr. Virola, Secretary of Socio-Economic Planning and Chair of the NSCB Board Mr. Augusto B. Santos and NEDA-NPPS OIC-Director Myrna B. Asuncion. Official photo from NSCB.)
What do you know, while we were all worrying ourselves to depression, the economy grew 7.3% in 2007 – the fastest growth in 31 years.
Read this breaking news from INQUIRER.net:
MANILA, Philippines — (UPDATE 2) The economy expanded by a forecast-beating 7.3 percent in 2007, its fastest pace in 31 years, boosted by the services sector, the government said Thursday.
“In an environment of benign inflation, low interest rates and a strong peso, the Philippine economy turned in its best performance in 31 years,” said Romulo Virola, the secretary-general of the National Statistics Coordination Board.
“On the demand side, increased consumer spending, investments in public and private construction, government spending and exports of non-factor services largely contributed to the remarkable performance of the economy.”
Following the strong performance last year, Economic Planning Secretary Augusto Santos said the government is maintaining its forecast that growth will slow to 6.3-7.0 percent in 2008 given the expected slowdown in the US, the biggest market for Philippine exports.
“What we are saying is that if there is a recession in the US, then that will affect us, but the situation is closely being monitored,” he told a media briefing.
Santos said the world’s largest economy is unlikely to slip into recession.
“As we see it, there may in fact be no recession in the US given the stimulus package of the Bush administration.”
Here’s how our growth rates look since 2000:
2000 — 4.38
2001 — 1.76
2002 — 4.45
2003 — 4.93
2004 — 6.38
2005 — 4.87
2006 — 5.45
2007 — 7.3
Before the announcement, analysts were expecting a 50 basis point cut in the central bank’s policy rates. Now, they are saying it could be smaller at 25 basis points. We will know for sure in a few hours. A bigger cut would have been better for stocks, not so good for bonds, but investors can’t really complain with the 7.3% figure.
Of course, economists will be reacting all over the place in the next few days. There were several significant upward revisions in the quarterly growth rates. The third quarter 2007 figure was revised upwards by 1.0 percent, there was a 1.7 percent rise in the second quarter and 2.5 percent revision in the first quarter. Economists in Ateneo de Manila and the University of the Philippines will have a field day commenting on how long it took the government to report on these revisions.
Here’s hoping our net worth grew as much, or more than 7.3% in 2007. Even better if our emotional and wellbeing balance sheets register high net worth. Have fun today and enjoy each moment!
February 4th, 2008 at 1:55 am
Legarda said the real challenge for the government was to “translate these rosy fiscal and monetary statistics into something that will actually alleviate the plight of majority of the Filipino
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How can they translate this so call rosy economy Gloria Arroyo, Bragging about. When the so call booming economy nothing but PAD just like she pad her votes in order to win in May 10, 2004. Presidential election. Gloria Arroyo, Keep lying to the filipino people hoping we believe all her lies. Some of them do. But not this idiots. It just a matter of time before the Philippines economy will collapse. When that happen she won’t know what hit her. And you’re all going down with it.
February 3rd, 2008 at 1:27 pm
Escudero: Hunger, poverty continue despite economic growth
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What growth are you talking about. The so call booming economy Gloria Arroyo, Bragging about nothing but empty shell. she pad it just like she pad her votes in May 10, 2004. Presidential election. In order for her to become the FAKE PRESIDENT OF CEBU.
The masses have yet to feel the effects of the country’s economic growth as widespread hunger and poverty continue to stalk them, Sen. Francis Escudero said Saturday.
“This is not to belittle the GDP (gross domestic product) growth last year but there seems to be a disconnect between impressive economic numbers and depressing realities on the ground,” Escudero said.
On Thursday the government announced that the Philippine economy grew a seasonally adjusted 1.8 percent in the final quarter of 2007 from the previous quarter.
The figure came above a 1.7 percent rise expected by analysts and pushed full 2007 growth well above the 7.0 percent figure forecast in a Reuters poll.
The government maintained a 2008 growth target of 6.3-7.0 percent despite the expected slowdown in the United States, the Philippines’ largest trading partner.
Escudero, however, argued that the growth should be translated into more jobs, more food, and more houses for the people but official government data allegedly showed the opposite.
The legislator cited the latest survey results showing that 15 million Filipinos were still experiencing bouts of involuntary hunger. He also lamented that 8.75 million Filipinos are either unemployed or underemployed and lack of domestic jobs forced hundreds of skilled Filipinos to seek greener pasture abroad.
“When one million families need a roof over their heads, when 27 million of our countrymen cannot buy essential drugs, when five million do not have access to regular clean drinking water, or when three in 10 Grade 1 students won’t be able to finish high school, then what we have is growth we can only read in the papers but one that we can’t personally feel,” he said.
Left-leaning think tank IBON Foundation Inc., meantime, belittled the government’s “hype” over its full-year 2007 economic growth, noting that the gains could not hide its alleged economic failures.
IBON research head Sonny Africa noted that amid the government’s rosy pronouncements the country’s unemployment rate showed the “worst joblessness of any administration.”
Africa also pointed out that the average family income is at its lowest over the last 10 years while the manufacturing and agriculture sectors compared to their share in the GDP are at their smallest in the last 37 years.
“The growth that the administration hypes is meaningless for millions of Filipinos. It merely reflects the profits of a few big foreign corporations and their local partners,” Africa said.
February 3rd, 2008 at 4:38 am
Something smells in the data
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Not according to Salva & Gloria.
Anybody who believe Gloria Arroyo, So call booming economy is STUPID THEN I THOUGHT. No offense! I’m just telling the truth. If you don’t believe me, It just too bad. But you well when the Philippines economy collapse.
EDITORIAL
02/03/2008
There was something smelly and not palatable with the way statistics are being suddenly and drastically revised by the Arroyo government.
A case in point was the third quarter gross domestic product (GDP), which the government statistics office said in a footnote to the “31-year” record growth performance it released Thursday that it was revised from 6.6 percent to 7.4 percent.
Amazing growth, considering the drought and the destructive typhoons that hit the country. Amazing, too, considering that manufacturing has been contracting, month, after month, after month.
But a list of data was supposedly updated, mainly on merchandise trade transaction, as a reason for the big kick up.
The sudden spurt in the government growth record was the reason Gloria, fresh from the World Economic Forum at the Swiss Alps, was able to proclaim to the world that the economy, in terms of GDP, grew 7.3 percent, while the gross national product (GNP) that takes into account remittances of the army of Filipinos working overseas rose 7.8 percent last year.
The government also revised the third quarter GNP growth rate to an astounding 8.8 percent.
Add to that, the figures showing that while it may take a lot of effort to prove that the figures are being massaged to suit Gloria, the frequent revisions of the economic data make every figure that the government churns out questionable.
The whole exercise in churning out economic data, more than making Gloria glow pink with self exaltation, was for local businesses to chart their road ahead for the year.
A difference of a decimal of a percentage point in the data may prove fatal to investment decisions, particularly those involving huge costs such as those in the property sector.
Now, we have the government saying the main economic data for the third quarter were off by nearly one percentage point.
The government can shrug it off as a pleasant error in the sense that the figure was ramped up instead of reduced by 0.8 points, but it still proved the unreliability of the numbers coming from supposedly official sources.
If such huge errors can be made, there would be less scruples for possible intentional managing of numbers for a crucial period, such as the visit of representatives of credit rating agencies that actually have only been made recently.
Would there be any difference if figures are padded for the meantime by 0.8-percentage point, and a quarter later say the figure was revised down or up depending on whatever the mood of those in Malacañang was for the moment?
The government has been censured internationally in the past for releasing way off figures.
Economists have bewailed the fact that they cannot rely on government for correct data.
The statistics institutions, in turn, have been complaining about the lack of funds and personnel for the skewed data.
Whatever the problem is, what was important for Gloria was that she can bask in the thought that the economy supposedly grew fastest during her term.
By the way, has not Gloria been proclaiming, one or two State of the Nation Addresses (Sona) back, that the country has the fastest economic growth in Asia and that it would be among the First World nation in 20 years?
Economists and representatives of multilateral institutions said it would need the economy to grow at least seven percent a year for the least of Gloria’s fantasies to come true.
So now the country had to have a 7.4-percent GDP growth last year.
What Gloria asks, Gloria gets — especially the untrue made into truth.
February 2nd, 2008 at 6:01 pm
szechuan, everybody has been talking about investing in human capital. even the government, but it’s not clear how exactly this should be done. i would like to hear more of your thoughts on this one
if you have the time.
February 2nd, 2008 at 6:00 pm
Bert S, i agree with you that there are a lot of jobs here but a huge mismatch with supply of labor. i was in an interview with the Employment Resource Center (ERC) and they showed me how much demand there is for certain skill sets that our jobless people don’t have. This problem also goes way back to our education system that over-emphasizes courses like commerce for example, when there are more jobs for welders, auto mechanics, etc.
I like what you said about VICTIMISM. Individual attitude also has some bearing on our situation in this country.