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Don’t get in if you don’t know how to get out

04/30/08

Posted under Investing

Investing lesson for the day from Noet Ravalo:

Before you invest, find out whether selling eventually will be a problem.

The possible earnings may be high based on the best guess-timates, but how do you cash in if no one is buying? Classic examples: time-share, real estate, jewelry, paintings, even certain bonds and stocks can be difficult to sell.

Check out his column today here. Here’s an excerpt:

When an investment opportunity comes our way, the main pitch is its rate of return. Those in the know often speak of “risk-adjusted” rates of returns to get a better reading of the “real” attractiveness of different instruments. A whole array of measures has been devised just for this purpose.

For retail investors like you and I, however, this language is too foreign and largely inaccessible. Even if we wanted to speak the language of risk adjustments, many of the required parameters are not publicly available. The best that we can get from our financial agents are terms like “indicative returns”, “estimated IRR” and perhaps “historical return” for instruments that are already selling in the market. For stocks, price-earnings ratios are often used as a guide for the future.

A great deal of caution about these terms is helpful. The term “indicative” translates to “best guess” and I have no clue how the financial agent got to his conclusion. IRR assumes an unchanging market condition so I really am not a believer of this parameter. History is good … except of course that it has this nasty habit of changing when you least expect it. As for P/E ratios, they would be helpful only if we had a good benchmark.

For these reasons, I personally place a very high premium on asset liquidity. I need the peace of mind that I have the option to sell my investment any time I need to do so. In addition to being “tradable”, I need to have a reasonable sense that I can liquidate my investment without having to take a huge loss by selling it at a firesale price.

These two conditions are the hallmarks of a liquid instrument. This is just being practical. What comfort can we take from an instrument that promised a high rate of return if we do not have the option to get back our funds when we may need them?





5 Feedbacks on "Don’t get in if you don’t know how to get out"



alijeffty gonzales

The whole idea of savings and investing lies on a desire to “defer” consumption of current assets (cash), the expectation being that the “investment vehicle” would increase the value of current assets to enable the investor to consume “more” in the future.

Liquidity as a benefit feature of an investment vehicle is sometimes taken to mean that an investment is “short-termed” and thus can be readily be converted back to cash. If we follow this line of reasoning, does this mean that a 5.5 year zero coupon bond is illiquid?

Doc Noet correctly pointed out that liquidity should be taken in the context of “tradability”, that of having a ready market at maturity or if ever the need to sell arises. Selling prior to maturity however runs the risk of loss due to market conditions-interest rates might be higher from the time of the purchase and this would cause the “market price” of the bond to drop.

Under normal market conditions, losses or gain in prices of bonds is a result of movements in interest rates and may not be necessarily due to its “liquidity” or “illiquidity”.

thanks,



don2x

if you are conservative and know the timeline when to use back your money, just wait it out until redemption of your bonds guaranteed by the government. no need to be concerned about tradability or liquidity during the period. but if you are the savvy investor, bond trading can open up new opportunities similar to stock market.if i recall small denomination bonds with 13.625% coupon rate was traded at pse before. during the 5-year period price fluctuated between 95-110%.i just don’t know when the fixed income exchange operated by pdex will be opened to the public.i’m sure this will increase tradability and liquidity of our bond market.



Tarantrader

This applies to people in the stock market who are blinded by their greed that they overlook the problem of liquidating the stock if it happens to be dormant most of the time. Unfortunately, we have too many people “invest” without being responsible with their money. And by invest, we mean they just buy and they don’t cut their losses when the price falls. In Tagalog, we call this IPIT.

It is a must that for every sort of investment, there must always be some exit plan. Never leaving it to bahala na.



don2x

there are no guarantees in stock trading. to gain high, the risk is also high.if you got “ipit,” your short term investment becomes long term and you don’t know when to get back your money.in government bond, you know the maturity date and coupon rate. unless you need the money due to emergency, you are not necessarily “ipit” since you still receive periodic interest income and the principal at maturity.if you need a loan, you can use your bond as collateral.



william ellis

I found your site while browsing on google and read a few of your other articles too. I’ve just added you to my yahoo rss Reader. Just wanted to say” keep up the good work” and congrats on a job well done! I am looking forward to reading more from you in the future.



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