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Bad economy got you down?

05/30/08

Posted under So What Chocnut?, economy

Do you listen to economists? They will have kilometric things to say about the 5.2 percent gross domestic product announced by the government yesterday. Listen closely and see if they sound like this hilarious interpretation of Alan Greenspan’s latest comment on the economy by one of my favorite bloggers and Fortune columnist Stanley Bing.

“First we have Alan Greenspan whose further additions to his previously stated opinions about the situation is dutifully reported in the Financial Times and quoted in today’s Daily Briefing. Apparently we have a 50% chance of being in a recession… It seems, he says, that there is data indicating things are stabilizing, but it’s too early to tell. If we do have a recession, it won’t be that bad though, probably. He says. Unless, you know, a bunch of other stuff happens, in which case things could get worse.

Nyahaha. Sounds familiar?

I get that a lot from many economists. (Not my favorite ones.) I used to think they walked one foot higher than mere mortals and aped their language. When you listen closely, you’ll realize most of them are not really sure of what they are saying. The title “economist” is used too loosely, ya know?

In fact, while GDP is the most popular thermometer for economic growth as I wrote in a previous post, it doesn’t bother most hard-nosed businessmen who have lived through wars to tell their tales. The intellectuals…that’s another story.

In a nutshell, here’s what you should know.

Gross domestic product for the first quarter of the year was pretty depressing for most analysts and government officials at 5.2 percent, especially if you put it side by side with the 7.0 percent (adjusted from 7.4 percent) figure for the previous quarter.

If you’re curious about the difference between GDP and GNP, it’s the net factor income from abroad, much of which come from money remitted by overseas Filipino workers.

Looking at the figures closely will show that everything took a hit. Industrial output, farm output where most of the jobs still are, and even the ever-buoyant services sector slowed down. People are not spending as much. Government spending in fact contracted. If only this were true because people saved more. Imports, which fuel our exports, suffered badly. No surprise there.

The official word is that GDP finally succumbed to higher oil and food prices and the problems of the US economy. If you live in Metro Manila, you probably knew this even before the figures came out and even if you aren’t an economist. Subic to Laguna accounts for an abnormally huge chunk of the Philippine economy. While malls are still full of people, make a quick count of the bright blue or green plastic bags in their hands and you will find out people are not really buying.

So, should that make you lose appetite? Did the bad economy get you down?

If you can find opportunities when everyone else sees problems, you’re made for life. Maybe this means we can slow down and enjoy life a little bit more because the economy is taking a breather, too!





2 Feedbacks on "Bad economy got you down?"



PBF

GDP is like a weather. The 5.2 growth can be liken to a cloudy sky. You will probably think that a rain is certain to happen, but you can also think that maybe the sun is just behind the clouds and will show up in a little while. So if you’re a business man, what would you do? will you risk going out sell your products? Or will you take the opportunity loss of not selling and wait for the sun to shine? Bottom line is that GDP is an environment for business, but what makes our business grow will depend on what we do to it.



CrystalBalls

hi salve,

i think the economy’s slowdown from 7.3% to 5.2% actually understates how much more difficult our economic lives are now vis-a-vis a year ago…with rice inflation at 40.0% and energy expenses threatening to rise by as much, little is left to spend on food, education, rent, etc…

hard times are here for sure…the americans, on the other hand where Wall Street economists/analysts are pretending/faking a U.S. recession to egg the U.S. Fed to keep cutting interest rates– are not suffering much at all…after lending to NINJAS (no income, no jobs, … aka subprime borrowers)…owners of these financial institutions should bear all the burden
of their excessive risk taking…instead of us Pinoys and other developing country citizens who can’t even afford the basics anymore



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