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For the contrarians

09/19/08

Posted under Investing, Uncategorized

We’ve been too serious lately. Let’s play a little game. For the contrarians out there who like to buy when there’s blood on the streets, what are your favorite investments and businesses in this time of market shrillness and panic?

You don’t have to limit your choices to stocks or bonds. Some people don’t like them because they are too complicated and these people get by pretty well. An agri-industrial company was being interviewed on Bloomberg this morning, which seemed pretty much immune to the Wall Street fiasco, clocking in a 170+ percent growth rate year on year. Hmm.

Start voting and we’ll track what happens to the prices of those investments every month from now. May the best contrarian win!





13 Feedbacks on "For the contrarians"



acn

i’ll stick with my regular dose of dividend paying stocks.. glo, pltl, tel, smph..

compound baby compound!



mommybanker

Assuming I had spare cents, I’d increase my PSE Index fund (not to be confused with an actively managed equity fund). Studies on the more mature stock markets (NYSE etc) have shown that stock index funds tend to perform better in the long run than actively managed funds. There’s minimal human intervention by a fund manager since it merely reflects the composition of the PSEi. Transaction costs should thus also be slightly lower.



masa_94

cash ako, at iipunin ko sa ilalim ng matres namin, or ginto na ilalagay ko sa palayok at ibabaon sa lupa.



Ricardo

mommybanker,

last time i checked, the PSE index funds have not performed as well as Philequity’s Philequity Fund, Inc. at least over the past 5 years. and i already factored in inflation and the sales load that Philequity charges (last data was used in August).

the Philequity Fund has completely owned the performance of the PSEi in teh past 10 years.

however, based on my studies, BPI’s PSE Index Fund came second so it’s still a good choice IMO. last was SunLife’s Prosperity Fund. and then everybody else inbetween that i bothered to study.



Kabayan

Look to buy Freddie, Fannie as well as AIG…not sure if you could get more contrarian than that…counter intuitive? or perhaps crazy!?…bought Fannie at $0.36…it’s now at $0.69. Since it’s been deemed too big to fail..ergo it will not, it’s in a conservatorship but at $0.36..what do you have to loose…plucked down 5K on it..not painfull..on the upside I think this has the potential to be in $3-4..by summer at which point I will get out…do the math…that qualifies as a decent return without much exposure on downside.

Outside the equity markets, I’m back in gold will stay for a while and in a Commodities ETF concentrating on Food (you called it right with Agri..look at Monsanto and ADM) cheap and great potential. Also have alternative energy ETF..small player too new…but it’s got the right mix of companies (GE, etc.) As for you folks back home..get out of the dollar and get into the fundamental/boring equities/commodities. Good luck!

Good calll on the dividends..but that’s if they can continue to afford it.

Index..pure passive play…well..PSEi will likely not perform the same as in past 5 yrs..and inflation and peso volatility will eat up your returns..more likely I’d bet it will underperform in the next few years.



activeman

index funds perform better than actively managed funds in markets where there is transparency and efficient information dissemination, such as in the US. in markets such as the philippines where there are imbalances and inefficiencies of information distribution, some fund managers often know much more than the rest of the market, and performance gains due to this are often worth the fees paid for them.



dannyph

Buy dividend paying stock while they are on huge discount to their book value… eg. NRCP is now 30% discount to its BV@P2.75/share, with a dividend yield at 10%. URC at 7% div yield.
Rental apartments is a cashflow machine with little effort to manage.



levity

been following walmart (NYSE:WMT) lately, but of course, Wmt is already given.

It’s been one of the very few stable companies out there. The Dow stumbles, Wmt remains. great stock.

as for high-flyers, probably small companies (less than $1 B in mkt value, but also less liquid, which sucks)



acn

“Studies on the more mature stock markets (NYSE etc) have shown that stock index funds tend to perform better in the long run than actively managed funds. ”

Mommybanker, are you expecting our index to perform the same?

“Good calll on the dividends..but that’s if they can continue to afford it.”

Kabayan, no one knows. But given the profitability of the telcos/smph, I’d give it a shot.

dannyph, good luck on your picks. =D



truecontraian

buy fannie mae (FNM), washington mutual (WM), AIG (AIG) and MBIA Inc. (MBI). these are the most battered stocks in this credit crunch. if we get out of this mess alive, these are the best bet to skyrocket.



Ria

I’ll probably wait a while to see how the feds are handling the crisis. Having said that if there is a short term profit in all these I’d go for it :)



pinoy investor

ATN is into cosmetic surgery, manganese mining, commercial property lease, broadband technology and real estate speculation. Current price 4.70, my target price 15. It won’t rise in 12 months but I like the business mix, it’s glamorous. I bought it :-)



Kabayan

ACN - I hear you there on giving it a shot. Time will tell.

Truecontrarian - as I noted in my previous post..got into Fannie at $0.36..it’s posting at $1.83 right now…go baby go!!

Ria - How short is your time line?..really this is a buyers dream..tons of quality equities to pick from…but as the old adage goes “In God We Trust, Everyone Else Must! show Data”…nothing beats homework. Especially if you’re a short-seller…there is good argument and lots of play on FX options especially USD…lots of movement in other buckets too.

Pinoy Investor - Too darn sexy for me, frankly I think the timing is bad for that one but Good luck!



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