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ROUNDUP: Economy still sound, but corporate storm clouds appear

12/22/08

Posted under So What Chocnut?

My apologies for not posting my news roundup last Saturday. Here it is, finally, including some developments today that point to trends in the economy.

Personal Finance

My sincerest thanks to you guys for making the Personal Finance section a hit among INQUIRER.net readers. I heard that some readers who would normally not read the Business Section at all do so because they find personal finance to be practical and useful.

My editor-in-chief once asked me why I chose to write about personal finance and I replied with a laugh that I had been merely typecast. I realize though that it’s the chance to change lives that makes personal finance for me very fulfilling.

Enough of the speech. Sniff.

Hope you like my article “Top personal finance lessons for 2008” as a yearender sort of thing. There are also tips on how to “Buy a house amidst a crisis” and how those with cash should consider next year a good time to buy one. Our Take Charge of Your Money article has a timely “On shopping wisely” article for those still doing their Christmas shopping.

There’s an 11-day holiday in the offing but if you need to work on some of those days, make sure your company pays you well. Here’s our guide: Pay rules for long holidays.

Here’s an interesting crisis-related development. Divorce rates in the United States have gone down because couples realize its cheaper to stay together. Heh. Interesting? Read more here: Hitched to the economy.

Macroeconomy

Economic data that came in last week about the economy showed we weren’t pummeled (yet) by the crisis. The peso last week touched P46.90 to a dollar because of the Fed’s historic decision to cut rates to zero, and we know that there will always be winners and losers regarding peso fluctuations.

The central bank responded by cutting rates by 50 basis points and that means you’ll see money getting cheaper and interest rates on loans going down even more. Next year, there might even be more rate cuts as the outlook for inflation gets rosier. The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas now expects price increases to be even tamer at 9.4 percent for the entire year or the lower end of its target range. If you are curious whether making money cheap will soften the economic landing for all of us, read Cielito F. Habito’s “Will easy money work.”

It’s not clear whether NEDA director general Ralph Recto already inputted the central bank rate cuts in his 4.6 percent prediction for gross domestic product growth in the fourth quarter. He is also talking about a P300-billion sustainability plan to help the economy move along. He didn’t say if this is new money and how the government will raise the amount, or just a re-packaging of the budget.

Other macroeconomic signs still point to a clear sky despite more gloomy talk about a total global economic meltdown, this time by Spain’s central bank governor Miguel Angel Fernandez Ordonez. Remittances as of October still grew 15 percent at P14 billion and while the month of October alone showed a sharp slowdown, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas believes the growth will stay at 15 percent for the whole year given that Filipino expats send more during the Christmas holidays.

Remember that last year, analysts said remittances will slow down because of the crisis and it didn’t? It appears that the Filipino culture surprised most of these foreign economists. Come what may, we find ways to send what our families need. We will see this time what happens with the possibilities of layoffs across the globe. Locally, however, the jobless rate was still at 6.8 percent in October and the balance of payments swung into a surplus in November of $19 million. No wonder one of the most respected businessmen in the Philippine economy, Jaime Augusto Zobel de Ayala remains bullish on Philippine prospects.

Banking and Investing

The saga of rural bank failures continued last week. BSP is investigating 9 rural banks for “unsafe and unsound” banking practices and now politicians, as always eager to get in on any chest-beating discussion, would like to investigate as well. Here is the list of the rural banks to be investigated: Dynamic Bank, Rural Bank of San Jose, San Pablo City Development Bank, Rural Bank of Paranaque, Rural Bank of Bais, First Interstate Bank, Pilipino Rural Bank, Bank of East Asia, and Philippine Countryside Rural Bank.

Another corporate drama last week came to a head when PSE suspended trading of Meralco shares. Dig deeper through the legal brouhaha and you’ll find that this put a monkey wrench on government financial institutions’ plan to sell its Meralco shares to San Miguel Corp.

Meanwhile, we have Gotianun’s East West Bank winning the bid for Philam Savings Bank. The bigger question, however, is who will bag the insurance business deal? The answer will all depend on the valuation of the company. I heard that Philamlife is too expensive for many of its suitors.

Investing-wise, San Miguel Corp., the country’s biggest food and beverage conglomerate, is preparing for a $1-billion preferred stock offer for next year for its acquisitions.

Corporate news:

For those who are constantly looking for air travel options, you might be interested to know that Dragonair has launched Manila-HK flights, but that the Texas Instruments plant has retired 400 people, listed firms’ third-quarter profits are down 20% and bank lending growth has slowed down in October.

These storm clouds mar what appears to be a clear economic sky and give some signs of the difficult road ahead for everyone as the crisis takes a bigger toll on the economy.

From the blogosphere:

I found an interesting piece from Soul who is ranting about bad customer service here. I find that while we don’t have to be shrews when complaining (customer service representatives are people too!), too many Filipinos are too shy to complain even when we deserve to be heard.





6 Feedbacks on "ROUNDUP: Economy still sound, but corporate storm clouds appear"



PBF

I think that the rate cuts of BSP will not affect the GDP forecast of DG Recto in the 4Q because the effect of any monetary policy is not immediate. If I can recall it correctly, Monetary policy typically operates with a lag, so that policy actions undertaken during a particular year would exert most of their impact on the economy only after some time lag which is estimated to be about two years



Heard !!! « Discourses on Life

[...] December 23, 2008 Filed under: internet — Alma @ 8:32 am Thanks to Salve for citing my article, Bad Customer Service and How it Pays to Blog About It in Money Smarts. [...]



jamezu

I am one of those who doesn’t really read the business section but your personal finance blog is really catching my attention since the topics are all practical and I learn a lot from it.



businessman

I know 2009 won’t be a good year but I hope the damage done will not be severe but we Filipinos can overcome any crisis that comes our way.



sunjun

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year Salve!
I truly enjoyed reading your articles this year. (been following since August ^^)
Looking forward to 2009.

FREE Personal Finance Advice
The Pinoy Entrepreneur



Salve

sunjun, jamezu, businessman and PBF, merry christmas and thanks for keeping it here on MoneySmarts! :)



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