By Vandermir Say, CFA
Value Investor
Most investors dream of having a large snowball one day. You want to make sure that the snowball keeps growing, however slowly, and one of the best ways for you to achieve this is by making sure it never shrinks along the way.
Placing a snowball close to grave danger in exchange for possibly large returns is not something an intelligent investor does. A high-yield investment scam is one such grave danger. If you don’t get out before the scam collapses, an investor can find his snowball has significantly shrunk. An investor will have to invest whatever little is left, and start all over again. In the worst cases, snowballs can shrink to almost nothing.
In another example, investing in a business that has owners or management with questionable integrity would be like pouring hot water on your snowball.
Remember, you never want your snowball to shrink.
The Sage of Omaha
Years before the US Tech Sector crashed, Warren Buffett was criticized by many as an old investor who missed the boat since he did not invest in the sector.
In 2002, Warren made the following statements:
“Charlie (Charles Munger) and I are of one mind in how we feel about derivatives and the trading activities that go with them: We view them as time bombs, both for the parties that deal in them and the economic system.”
“Charlie and I believe, however, that the macro picture is dangerous and getting more so. Large amounts of risk, particularly credit risk, have become concentrated in the hands of relatively few derivatives dealers, who in addition trade extensively with one other.”
The Sage of Omaha may have been five years early, but most of us may agree that being right five years early is so much better than being wrong.
Integrity
Integrity is a trait valued by Warren and value investors, especially in cases where one acquires a minor share in a business. When you invest in stocks, you become an owner in the companies that you buy.
Warren is regarded as having a very high level of integrity and he makes it a point to do business only with those with similar characters. In the past, Warren passed on deals that could make him hundreds of millions of dollars because it meant that he would have to do business with someone who would cause his stomach to churn.
In the current crisis, shares of companies run by people with a higher level of integrity are not as badly hit as those with a lower level of integrity. Examples of companies with a higher level of integrity are: Berkshire Hathaway and Wal Mart and I believe, we don’t need to exert too much effort to identify those with the opposite character.
The crisis has exposed many unethical and illegal investment practices.
In the Philippines, we have observed, time and again, the numerous unethical and illegal activities that have taken away assets from Filipino investors. It is very important that individuals involved in these activities are punished to reduce their occurrence in the future. We can learn from the US model where they have arrested Madoff and Cosmo and caused company leaders to lose their jobs.
Credit and trust
Credit is a critical component of the global economy and we now observe what happens when the credibility of major financial institutions are questioned.
Warren has recently said, “This economy (American) doesn’t work well without the lubrication of credit and trust and that’s been lost. And it’s a huge problem.”
It is necessary that credibility is regained and this can only be done via responsible and ethical actions.
In this crisis, value investors generally avoided losing money by not investing in unethical entities. Investors can invest in entities or markets that will continue to have or regain a superior level of credibility.
I shall end with a statement from Warren’s longtime partner, Charles Munger, who commented on some practices of banks and financial institutions: “In some of these institutions, the main product is not banking, it’s testosterone.”
(Every other month, the Chartered Financial Analyst Society of the Philippines writes articles for MoneySmart readers as part of the organization's advocacy on financial literacy. The CFAP is a member society of CFA Institute, the global membership association that administers the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) curriculum and exam programs worldwide; publishes research; and sets voluntary, ethics-based professional and performance-reporting standards for the investment industry. CFA Institute has more than 96,000 members, who include the world’s 83,000 CFA charterholders, in 133 countries and territories, as well as 135 affiliated professional societies in 56 countries and territories. CFAP was founded in the Philippines in 1997 with the support of the Capital Markets Development Council, Inc. (CMDCI). CFAP’s mission is to be the thought leader in the Philippines’ investment and finance industry. For more information, please visit www.cfaphilippines.org.)
GUEST POST: Warren Buffett and the crisis
By Vandermir Say, CFA
Value Investor
Most investors dream of having a large snowball one day. You want to make sure that the snowball keeps growing, however slowly, and one of the best ways for you to achieve this is by making sure it never shrinks along the way.
Placing a snowball close to grave danger in exchange for possibly large returns is not something an intelligent investor does. A high-yield investment scam is one such grave danger. If you don’t get out before the scam collapses, an investor can find his snowball has significantly shrunk. An investor will have to invest whatever little is left, and start all over again. In the worst cases, snowballs can shrink to almost nothing.
In another example, investing in a business that has owners or management with questionable integrity would be like pouring hot water on your snowball.
Remember, you never want your snowball to shrink.
The Sage of Omaha
Years before the US Tech Sector crashed, Warren Buffett was criticized by many as an old investor who missed the boat since he did not invest in the sector.
In 2002, Warren made the following statements:
“Charlie (Charles Munger) and I are of one mind in how we feel about derivatives and the trading activities that go with them: We view them as time bombs, both for the parties that deal in them and the economic system.”
“Charlie and I believe, however, that the macro picture is dangerous and getting more so. Large amounts of risk, particularly credit risk, have become concentrated in the hands of relatively few derivatives dealers, who in addition trade extensively with one other.”
The Sage of Omaha may have been five years early, but most of us may agree that being right five years early is so much better than being wrong.
Integrity
Integrity is a trait valued by Warren and value investors, especially in cases where one acquires a minor share in a business. When you invest in stocks, you become an owner in the companies that you buy.
Warren is regarded as having a very high level of integrity and he makes it a point to do business only with those with similar characters. In the past, Warren passed on deals that could make him hundreds of millions of dollars because it meant that he would have to do business with someone who would cause his stomach to churn.
In the current crisis, shares of companies run by people with a higher level of integrity are not as badly hit as those with a lower level of integrity. Examples of companies with a higher level of integrity are: Berkshire Hathaway and Wal Mart and I believe, we don’t need to exert too much effort to identify those with the opposite character.
The crisis has exposed many unethical and illegal investment practices.
In the Philippines, we have observed, time and again, the numerous unethical and illegal activities that have taken away assets from Filipino investors. It is very important that individuals involved in these activities are punished to reduce their occurrence in the future. We can learn from the US model where they have arrested Madoff and Cosmo and caused company leaders to lose their jobs.
Credit and trust
Credit is a critical component of the global economy and we now observe what happens when the credibility of major financial institutions are questioned.
Warren has recently said, “This economy (American) doesn’t work well without the lubrication of credit and trust and that’s been lost. And it’s a huge problem.”
It is necessary that credibility is regained and this can only be done via responsible and ethical actions.
In this crisis, value investors generally avoided losing money by not investing in unethical entities. Investors can invest in entities or markets that will continue to have or regain a superior level of credibility.
I shall end with a statement from Warren’s longtime partner, Charles Munger, who commented on some practices of banks and financial institutions: “In some of these institutions, the main product is not banking, it’s testosterone.”
(Every other month, the Chartered Financial Analyst Society of the Philippines writes articles for MoneySmart readers as part of the organization's advocacy on financial literacy. The CFAP is a member society of CFA Institute, the global membership association that administers the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) curriculum and exam programs worldwide; publishes research; and sets voluntary, ethics-based professional and performance-reporting standards for the investment industry. CFA Institute has more than 96,000 members, who include the world’s 83,000 CFA charterholders, in 133 countries and territories, as well as 135 affiliated professional societies in 56 countries and territories. CFAP was founded in the Philippines in 1997 with the support of the Capital Markets Development Council, Inc. (CMDCI). CFAP’s mission is to be the thought leader in the Philippines’ investment and finance industry. For more information, please visit www.cfaphilippines.org.)
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If you look at his record, Buffett has been right at almost every major financial turn, even when the entire financial world seemed to be of a different opinion.
In 1973-74 he correctly opined that "now is the time to buy stocks and get rich." And it really was.
During the leveraged buyout era of the 80's, he criticized "junk" bonds and their underlying rationale. It turned out that most of those issues really were junk.
In the 90's he campaigned for the expensing of stock options when the whole of corporate America was going the other way. If anyone had listened, many abuses might've been avoided, including those in the now-ailing U.S. financial industry.
Buffett shunned tech stocks even when it seemed like they would never go down. The tech crash eventually proved his oft-derided decision right.
And yes, he spoke out against derivatives at a time when just about everyone else was enamored with them, including Alan Greenspan. He called them financial weapons of mass destruction -- an apt description considering what we are witnessing today.
Buffett and Munger have grounded their business philosophies on common sense. They have perfected their fundamentals and do not get caught up in new ways of "making" money. Considering the results they have achieved, everyone should consider doing the same.
great read. warren buffet is indeed seen by many insatiable and greedy investors a nuthead...but at the end of the downward spiral, warren is still on top.
Hello!
A friend sent me this. I thought I'd share it here. :-)
"We begin this New Year with dampened enthusiasm and dented optimism. Our happiness is diluted and our peace is threatened by the financial illness that has infected our families, organizations and nations. Everyone is desperate to find a remedy that will cure their financial illness and help them recover their financial health. They expect the financial experts to provide them with remedies, forgetting the fact that it is these experts who created this financial mess.
Every new year, I adopt a couple of old maxims as my beacons to guide my future. This self-prescribed therapy has ensured that with each passing year, I grow wiser and not older. This year, I invite you to tap into the financial wisdom of our elders along with me, and become financially wiser.
* Hard work: All hard work bring a profit, but mere talk leads only to poverty.
* Laziness: A sleeping lobster is carried away by the water current.
* Earnings: Never depend on a single source of income. [At least make your Investments get you second earning]
* Spending: If you buy things you don't need, you'll soon sell things you need.
* Savings: Don't save what is left after spending; Spend what is left after saving.
* Borrowings: The borrower becomes the lender's slave.
* Accounting: It's no use carrying an umbrella, if your shoes are leaking.
* Auditing: Beware of little expenses; A small leak can sink a large ship.
* Risk-taking: Never test the depth of the river with both feet. [ Have an alternate plan ready ]
* Investment: Don't put all your eggs in one basket.
I'm certain that those who have already been practicing these principles remain financially healthy. I'm equally confident that those who resolve to start practicing these principles will quickly regain their financial health.
Let us become wiser and lead a happy, healthy, prosperous and peaceful life."
--Warren Buffet
In the current crisis, shares of companies run by people with a higher level of integrity are not as badly hit as those with a lower level of integrity. Examples of companies with a higher level of integrity are: Berkshire Hathaway
and
Wal Mart ?????????????!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
PLEASE.......get your facts straight at least.
http://www.fastcompany.com/node/54763/print
The Man Who Said No to Wal-Mart
By Charles Fishman
What struck Jim Wier first, as he entered the Wal-Mart vice president's office, was the seating area for visitors. "It was just some lawn chairs that some other peddler had left behind as samples." The vice president's office was furnished with a folding lawn chair and a chaise lounge.
And so Wier, the CEO of lawn-equipment maker Simplicity, dressed in a suit, took a seat on the chaise lounge. "I sat forward, of course, with my legs off to the side. If you've ever sat in a lawn chair, well, they are lower than regular chairs. And I was on the chaise. It was a bit intimidating. It was uncomfortable, and it was going to be an uncomfortable meeting."
It was a Wal-Mart moment that couldn't be scripted, or perhaps even imagined. A vice president responsible for billions of dollars' worth of business in the largest company in history has his visitors sit in mismatched, cast-off lawn chairs that Wal-Mart quite likely never had to pay for.
The vice president had a bigger surprise for Wier, though. Wal-Mart not only wanted to keep selling his lawn mowers, it wanted to sell lots more of them. Wal-Mart wanted to sell mowers nose-to-nose against Home Depot and Lowe's.
"Usually," says Wier, "I don't perspire easily." But perched on the edge of his chaise, "I felt my arms getting drippy."
Wier took a breath and said, "Let me tell you why it doesn't work."
very relevant article for curretn situation of the country!
On Wal Mart:
The 1 year return for Wal Mart shares is 2.8%. It preserved value and the business is doing fine and income is steady.
Facts:
Present a company that has similar results and then compare.
This is timely and sagely advice from the Oracle of Omaha. A business is a product of its owner. A businessman with integrity, profits not from short-sighted greed, but through the good will of his relations with his customers, suppliers and creditors. A businessman with a mind for order, fairness, integrity and transparency builds up a good reputation with all those who do business with him and would therefore profit everyone. The result would make everyone happy and more business would come to him. Whereas, a selfish, short-sighted, and deceitful businessman would cause tension, doubt and chaos with all of his dealings. He may successfully profit in the short term but he would also succeed in ruining his relationship with his customers, suppliers and creditors and would not be very willing to do business with him in the future.
If only the creators of those highly complex derivatives and other "weapons of mass financial destruction" took to account counter-party risk instead of of pursuit of short-term profit than we would have not be suffering from this current global economic turmoil.
As for the financial frauds and embezzlers like Madoff and our very own Legacy bank owners, they will get their time too. They can defraud people of millions and billions and maybe could manage to escape punishment in this lifetime but surely would not in the next. Of course, this may not be to helpful to the investors they have robbed from; so we must always remember to be cautious and prudent with our dealings especially when it comes to money and never let our own greed get rid of our common sense. If a deal is to good to be true then it usually is false.
Quote from money.cnn.com in 2004:
When a shareholder asked for Buffett's worst mistake in recent years, he answered: Wal-Mart.
"I set out to buy $100 million shares of Wal-Mart at a [pre-split price of] $23," recalled Buffett. "We bought a little and it moved up a little and I thought maybe it will come back a bit. That thumbsucking has cost us in the current area of $10 billion."
Media is always second hand news. Always verify for yourself when your own money is concerned.
"In looking back on how we got here, the business press assumes a tone of rueful omniscience, as in this late-2007 New York Times piece on regulatory laxity under Alan Greenspan: "Had officials bothered to look, frightening clues of the coming crisis were available." Of course, the clues the Times cites in the very next sentence—the ceaseless research of the North Carolina-based Center for Responsible Lending—were available had anyone bothered to look. So, a reader might well ask, why didn't the media?"
"I worked as a Wall Street Journal staff writer for eight years ending in December 2004 and now critique the business media full time at the Columbia Journalism Review. I'll attest that business journalists as a rule are as smart, sophisticated, and plugged-in as they seem. And yet that army of professional business reporters—an estimated 9,000 or so nationwide in print alone—for all practical purposes missed the biggest story on the beat. Why?"
http://www.motherjones.com/news/feature/2009/01/buying-the-bull.html
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