…gross domestic product grew 4.6% in the third quarter despite all the pessimism, talks of gloom and doom and actual recession in more advanced economies of the US, Japan and European countries.

The figure is in the upper end of the government projection of 4.0% to 4.6%. Still, this is quite a drop from the 31-year peak of 7.2% in 2007. The fourth quarter, although seasonally a good quarter for the economy because of Christmas spending and stuff, might be gloomier if people keep postponing their spending to wait for prices to go lower (like that LCD television that was at P120,000 early this year but is now at P100,000, zero percent interest for 24 months.

So, maybe I should change my tune a little bit and say: hey guys, if you have the money, go shopping to save the economy! Hehe.

***

…some analysts actually believe the bear market is over, stock prices have bottomed out, but that this does not mean the bull is ready to charge. So, as my editor-in-chief JV Rufino asked when I told him about the news, what do you call a market that is neither a bull nor a bear?

***

…if you have investments in the stock market, you belong to less than half of one percent of the total population of the Philippines that are into equities! Citiseconline.com only had 6,000 customers in 2007 and only 15% of them traded at least eight times in a month.

***

…I am starting to believe I am jinxed!

Well, the good news is that a few minutes (yes, minutes) after I blogged about BPI’s online banking service, someone from the bank called me up at home (should I be scared or impressed? honestly, I’m more impressed than worried) and tried to help me with my problems. A few days after, he called me again as promised and told me the account linked to my online banking facility was inactive, hence the error messages. (the phone banker sounded as puzzled as I was by the explanation of their IT guys).  I took note of the instructions he gave and resolved to follow them religiously.

Finally, yesterday, I was ready to look at my account. Lo and behold, I forgot my password and got locked out! (that was totally my fault). So, I called up the 89-100 hotline today and what message did I get? “Ma’am, we are having a problem with our system so can you please call us again in an hour?”

Strangely, I am not really upset. But I think I am so totally jinxed.

***

…when you call an OFW abroad through their phone with roaming capabilities, he pays through the nose just to receive your call and you pay IDD rates on your phone. Ouch!

If you have Globe’s family sim pack, the best way to maximize the entire package is for the OFW to buy another sim with Globe’s telco partner in that country. You can send him a text message for P1, he can reply using text. The two sims used by relatives here can benefit from “unli text plans” but to call home, he should use his co-branded sim.

OneAyala privilege card, by the way, was relaunched today with more benefits! It’s a discount card that’s also an ATM through which Filipino expats abroad (I like the sound of that more than OFW) can use to remit money to the Philippines. Check out some of the noteworthy discounts below (others I did not include were blah):

• “preferential rates” on international and domestic tickets and packages from Fiesta Tours and Travel and discounted rates on passporting and documentation,
• deluxe room at P6,200++ and the Club Room at P8,500++ at Hotel Intercontinental and complimentary one-way transfer from airport to hotel for a minimum of 3 nights stay and 20% discount on all food and beverage outlets
• 10% off on existing rates on Deluxe and Suite rooms at Marriott in Cebu City and 10% discount in all food and beverage outlets
• 5% discount on purchases at Fiesta Mall Duty Free
• Free Hanabishi Rice Cooker for every single-receipt purchase of P15,000 at Abenson
• P200 worth of load for only P160 in Timezone
• one free donut for every dozen bought at Mister Donut
• Free one-year personal accident insurance worth P100,000 for every Ayala Life policy purchased, and
• One free money transfer to the Philippines from anywhere in the world from Xoom.

When the stock market is raging like a bull, any monkey can make money trading stocks. It is when the market is tanking when, as they say, you can separate the men from the boys.

I was listening to Citiseconline.com president Conrado Bate’s presentation at the CFA Society Prestige Night last week, and found it interesting that the company considers these six stocks their GEMSS.

I didn’t get the meaning of the acronym, but based on my notes, the company considers these companies as leaders in their industry, can report stable earnings in good and bad times and grow when the economy is growing, have management that are transparent, churn out superior products and services and have strong balance sheets.
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It’s pure pain to watch someone suffer from losing all his investments due to a falling market. What to do?

It’s too easy to say, just hold on because markets recover all the time. Curious Capitalist over at Time.com points that the best response is no response, but active investors know that once you lose all the bets, you waste so much of the capital that you can’t get in when real opportunities come up.

Last week, I spoke with several investment guys who espouse peso-cost averaging. The moneysmarts definition of that is “pikit-mata” investing, where you keep setting aside the same amount of money regularly — monthly or quarterly — whether the market is up or down.
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If you think your stock portfolio has been beaten to a pulp, wait till you hear what technical analysts have to say about whether we’ve already seen the worst.

“Has the PSEi reached the bottom? Hell, no,” said Fitz Aclan, head of investment strategy of the trust department of Banco de Oro.

Fitz gave his inter-market analysis and fearless forecast at the Chart Analysis Forum Tuesday night at the PSE trading floor in Ortigas. Fitz is one of the founders of Absolute Traders, the group that organized the forum.
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We answered this question in our personal finance feature today:

Question: I am one of the thousands of people who live in Quezon City but work in Makati City. That means I drive some 20 kilometers to work every day, and that’s just one way. I tried commuting but it’s impossible during rush hour. With the price of gasoline going up, travel to and from work makes a huge dent in my budget. Is there any relief in sight for us? – Josephine P.

We all will have to deal with the rising cost of gas, whether or not we are from Quezon City, Bulacan, Cavite, Cebu or Davao. The most terrible forecast I have heard so far is for a full tank to cost P30,000. That’s almost the take-home pay of senior call center agents.
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Wrote an article for our personal finance section today. You might want to check it out:

Did you know that a good art collector could beat returns in the stock market in both good and bad times?

Investment in well-chosen Philippine art pieces at a minimum of P100,000 to P150,000 could give a 10 percent to 30 percent in a year or two. For those who have a taste for the works of National Artists, the 1972 Bencab acrylic on paper, estimated at $19,000 to $26,000 eventually sold for $54,000, writes Giselle Kasilag in Kulay-Diwa website.
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Fitzgerald Aclan, one of the most experienced technical chartists in the country and the chairman of Absolute Traders, says the key levels to watch for at in  is 3,400 for the Philippine Stock Exchange Index (PSEi) and 13,200 for the Dow Jones Industrial Index.

Fitz also believes that the PSEi’s ideal support level is at 2,900 to 3,000. The PSEi on Monday closed at 3,079.99 and the DJIA ended at 12,266.39.

Here’s a So What Chocnut moment. Think of a “support level” as a sticky point that stocks find hard – historically — to bust through on their way down. It’s the historical bottom that investors look for as a signal to buy. Two things can happen to it: it can be confirmed when investors buy stocks at that level (at which point prices start going up, right?) or wiped out if investors still don’t buy at that level and stock prices continue to go down.
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BY MALAYA LARAYA

I recently conducted a half-day seminar on financial planning for some professionals and it was a rather enlightening experience on the mindsets of people when it comes to financial planning. As always there was an open forum at the end and quite a number of questions were asked – some were the usual and some were rather unusual. So for those of you who may have had some of these questions in mind but didn’t know who or what to ask; here is a small FAQ on financial planning.

What is the best investment? This is definitely the most common question that has been asked and the short answer is this : There is none. More specifically, there is simply no investment tool that is the best for all people all of the time. There are instead, instruments that are best suited to each individual’s particular needs, plans and current financial condition. Simply put, what is good for your friend, spouse, relative, lover, workmate, neighbour or child may not necessarily be good for you due to the undeniable fact that you and your friend, spouse, relative, lover, workmate, neighbor or child are two different individuals. Consequently, the two of you will have different sets of wants and needs at different times and will therefore need different solutions. Therefore, be very wary of anyone who tries to sell you a panacea for all of your investment needs as it simply does not yet exist.

Where can I get information about (x)? Despite the fact that we are very much in the online age, very many people still do not know where to get even the most basic information about financial products. From equities to managed funds to pre-need plans; people seem to be at a loss as to where to go. Here are some websites that you can visit as well as what you can expect to read.
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(Can you handle the wild ride in equities? Photo from AFP)

Good investment advisors will never forget to tell you that potential gains in the stock market are interminably intertwined with potential losses. That is what TraderPinoy was saying in his comment here. Before considering the stock market, ask your delicate stomach if it can handle the wild ride so common in equities. You will notice this warning is NOT in fine print, so don’t allow your eyes to zoom out.

Take your time… there’s no hurry.

If it can stomach the risks, here’s an excerpt from an article from INQUIRER.net that seeks to help beginners get their feet wet in the market. You can read the entire article here.
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(Photo credit: Agence France Presse)

Bear markets set off the most interesting behavior in many investors.

Some get infected with the snakebite effect, a term I got from Chartered Financial Analyst Society president Mark Yu. He explained that some people who are bit by the snake (in the world of investing) decide never to invest again.

Then you have those that follow the herd. When foreigners are spooked and they start dumping stocks, they sell their shares too and stay on the sidelines waiting for better times.

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