Downturn becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy
- Digoy Fernandez, Economy -
By Digoy Fernandez
IN the typical Western corporate setting, the initial reflex action in severe downturns like what we are beginning to go through is to lay off staff, close down plants, and cut both expenses and benefits in an effort to pare down costs. Of course, if one multiplies this action thousands of times over as companies across the international spectrum tighten their collective belts, the more pernicious effects of a severe recession become like a self-fulfilling prophecy. The more people lain off and plants closed result in lower spending power all over the world’s markets, making the downward spiral not only inevitable but also longer lasting. There was a trigger, to be sure, and this was the debacle in the sub-prime housing loans and the discovery of crappy credit swap default loans in the portfolio of many an otherwise respectable financial institution. But the period of fault finding is over. Now is the time to think positive to get ourselves going, even if the economy is headed the opposite direction.
With the loss of jobs coming along like a tidal wave, it boggles one to attempt to visualize the effect this will have on consumer spending, the subsequent decline in production, the ejection of families from their homes, and a general sense of malaise. What is one to do then, when faced with an unpalatable situation such as this one?
In our country where the family system remains alive, it is easy to think of a dispossessed family moving back into the parents’ household, or being given the use of an underutilized asset. Not so in many Western countries where homeless or church shelters often provide the only possible fallback for a family that hits bottom. At the very least, in the more socialized economies, there will always be welfare to lean on…but even this is not a bottomless fund and many governments may prove reluctant to support an army of dispossessed people who will not be able to find work.
