By Tessa R. Salazar
Inquirer
THE NUMBER of companies that participated in the recently concluded 40th Tokyo Motor Show was 241, two more than the 2005 edition’s 239. But if you were to go by the Who’s Who of the automotive industry, numbers can’t hide the gaping hole left by those who were conspicuously absent this time.
Some of the Detroit Motown’s top executives were not seen and their absence didn’t go unnoticed. Asahi Shimbun wasted no time reporting these truants. A Fortune report at CNNMoney even went so far as writing “RIP” for the Tokyo Motor Show after citing auto launches by US top automakers being done elsewhere.
Have these fortune tellers hit the nail on the head, or have they just been too quick to the draw? Journalists who attended the motor show witnessed numerous concept vehicles and environment-friendly hybrid machines, making this writer think that the motor show was undergoing a sea change in its overall vision.
Major shift in direction
And if, indeed, the 53-year-old motor show was undergoing a “second childhood,” a major shift in direction toward being more environmentally conscientious, then it has to contend with two factors: 1) These hybrids and concepts are still a long way off from actual commercial production, especially in minor markets like the Philippines, and this may be a major turnoff for prospective buyers window shopping in Tokyo; and 2) Even the major markets such as the United States and emerging powerhouse China seem not to be biting the “green” carrot dangled before them.
Of course, the motor show still had its highlight moments, such as the much-anticipated launch of the Nissan GT-R (which did not disappoint, except for the announcement that there was still no tentative release date yet in the Philippines), the Mitsubishi Lancer Evolution X (tentative RP launch date sometime in April 2008), and the new Subaru WRX STI (tentative RP launch date March 2008).
Honda offered its own surprises for the Tokyo delegates (the latter announcing that its sportier Accord 2.4- and 3.5-liter versions would be available here by the second quarter of 2008).
But if you hear the talk between the revs, something seems to be really amiss.
Weak car market
“The Japanese car market is altogether in weak health. Following a decline of two percent to 4.64 million cars already last year, the market shrank further in the first eight months of this year by 6.3 percent to 2.98 million cars,” said Matthias Wissmann, president of the German Association of the Automotive Industry, during a press briefing attended by Inquirer Motoring at Makuhari Messe in Chiba, Japan.
In another press briefing, Bernard Bohr, chair of the Bosch Automotive Group, said that automobile production in Japan would remain almost stagnant until 2015, at 11.5 million units. But worldwide, he said that Japanese automakers would increase their production over the same period: from 23 to 29 million vehicles.
Fortune’s interview with analyst Michel Dunne indicated that Japanese consumers bought 5.7 million vehicles in 2005, but were expected to purchase only 5.2 million units this year. “By comparison, the China market is exploding — from 5.3 million units two years ago to 8 million units in 2007 — making it the second largest auto market in the world after the United States.” By 2010, Dunne expects Japan to still be “under 6 million units while demand in China is expected to reach 11.5 million.”
Japan still main route
Bohr said during the press conference that for Bosch one of the main routes for automotive growth would still lie in Japan. He said that even if Japanese automakers were going international in their supplier structures, it would still be in Japan where major decisions will be made.
Bosch engineers confirm they still collaborate closely with customers in Japan. Their know-how in Japan also serves to support Bosch development teams worldwide.
Bosch Group is one of the biggest German employers in Japan with a workforce of more than 7,800. It operates 20 manufacturing plants, five engineering centers and two test courses.
“Support like this goes to places as far away as Brazil, where, for a Japanese automaker, we are developing a flex fuel system that improves cold-start capability when the engine is running on ethanol,” Bohr said.
Favorable signs
Bohr also sees favorable signs for diesel-fed automobiles in Japan, with Nissan and Honda announcing they would launch a diesel passenger car for the domestic Japanese market.
“This is an opportunity for us, not least in view of fuel prices in Japan, which have risen by a good 10 percent since the beginning of the year,” Bohr quipped.
